Mark crisp momentum sistema de negociação de ações

Tudo que você precisa saber sobre a negociação com linhas de tendência.
Atualizado em: 21 de setembro de 2017.
Desenhar níveis-chave é uma parte essencial da análise técnica.
O problema é que a técnica pode ser tão confusa para iniciantes, porque marcá-los em um gráfico é muito subjetivo!
É principalmente devido à quantidade de informações conflitantes lá fora, os comerciantes ficam realmente frustrados com o processo correto.
Se você der a dois operadores o mesmo gráfico, e pedir a cada lote uma linha & # 8211; provavelmente você verá dois resultados muito diferentes.
Neste guia, mostrarei a você minha maneira de desenhar uma linha de tendência e mostrarei como usá-las.
Índice de guia.
Quais são as linhas de tendência realmente usadas na análise técnica?
Esses caras vão aparecer em todas as suas análises de gráficos 101 & # 8217; material de livro de texto.
Sua função básica é destacar suporte linear e resistência.
Muitas vezes, quando o mercado está em movimento (fazendo novos altos e baixos), o preço tenderá a respeitar um nível linear & # 8211; que nós identificamos como uma linha de tendência.
Os mercados em alta tenderão a criar um nível de suporte linear crescente & # 8230;
Observe como todos os movimentos de contra-tendências estão terminando nesta estrutura?
Quando eles aparecem, podemos usar essas linhas para antecipar o próximo ponto de reversão no mercado e procurar sinais de reversão de alta.
O oposto é verdadeiro para um cenário de baixa & # 8230;
Então, obviamente, a situação de baixa é apenas uma inversão de papéis.
Counter ralis de tendência terminam em linha clara, como eles, como um nível de resistência linear. Podemos usá-lo como um ponto de reversão antecipado.
Portanto, esse tipo comum de análise técnica envolve interpretar essas linhas como suporte linear e resistência.
Quando uma linha é quebrada, muitas vezes o mercado pode voltar e testá-lo novamente como um novo nível de suporte ou resistência.
Acima: Um exemplo de um que antes era mantido como resistência é então respeitado como novo suporte à medida que o mercado recua e o testa novamente.
O que eu mostrei até agora são as funções básicas, mas podemos fazer muito mais com elas. No restante do artigo, vamos orientá-lo em outros eventos da linha de tendência, como & # 8230;
Quebra de contra-tendência (sinalizadores) Quebras clássicas Exemplo de sinais de reversão em estruturas lineares Estruturas de consolidação criadas (boas e ruins)
Como você desenha linhas de tendência & # 8211; O caminho certo?
Em primeiro lugar, precisamos cobrir um conjunto de regras consistente para incentivar (o que eu acredito), é a maneira correta de identificar os níveis de qualidade.
A maioria dos tutoriais re-escritos por aí apenas o instrui a marcar dois altos ou baixos juntos - & # 8230; só dois.
Este é um conselho realmente grosseiro, e pode deixar você muito confuso para onde traçar a maldita linha. Dicas como estas definir comerciantes no caminho para análise excessiva.
Seguindo o método de bool de texto comumente pregado (de usar apenas dois pontos de ancoragem), abre a porta para centenas de possibilidades em um gráfico!
Você não quer isso, você precisa de um melhor controle de qualidade & # 8230; de outro modo, você pode acabar com gráficos como este & # 8230;
Eu sei que este é um exemplo extremo e bem-humorado & # 8211; mas eu acho que esse cara conectou todos os dois altos e baixos do swing juntos & # 8230;
Uma linha com apenas dois pontos de ancoragem é realmente apenas um ponto de vista & # 8216; não confirmado & # 8217; nível em seus gráficos.
O exemplo acima mostra uma linha de tendência marcada com dois baixos oscilantes como pontos de ancoragem. É uma maneira agressiva e de baixa qualidade de fazer isso.
É apenas um catalisador que pode se transformar em um nível adequado & # 8211; mas neste estágio é apenas uma linha pendente.
Você pode marcar estas linhas pendentes se achar apropriado, e esperar que a linha seja novamente respeitada & # 8211; mas na maioria das vezes isso vai bagunçar seus gráficos e distorcer sua análise técnica.
O truque & # 8216; & # 8217; desenhar linhas de qualidade é usar * 3 * clear anchor points & # 8230; então você tem algo que vale a pena ocupar o imóvel do seu gráfico!
Quando digo pontos de ancoragem, refiro-me a altos ou baixos oscilantes que se alinham de maneira linear.
Veja no gráfico acima, usamos 3 pontos de swing.
Usando um mínimo de 3 pontos de ancoragem, construímos uma linha de tendência de qualidade que realmente importa para a análise técnica.
Quando você usa apenas dois pontos de ancoragem, seu nível é basicamente "incerto", ou apenas parcialmente construído. Você nunca sabe se você marcou no lugar correto.
A série de gráficos abaixo irá ilustrar a frustração de alguém que usa apenas 2 pontos de ancoragem & # 8230;
Parece legítimo, até que & # 8230;
De repente, o mercado não responde como esperado & # 8230; melhor & # 8216; ajustar & # 8217 ;, sim?
OK, agora eu acho que eu entendi "& # 8230;
O comic mostra o comerciante "perseguindo a linha". O que é uma análise frustrante e improdutiva.
Não desperdice sua energia & # 8230; use 3 pontos de ancoragem. É muito mais fácil e fornece uma linha de tendência confirmada no mercado.
Não persiga o preço, marque o que você pode ver claramente!
Acima: Usando a regra de 3 swing highs. Não mais perseguindo nosso rabo, três pontos de dados se alinham & # 8211; nós temos o que precisamos.
Acima: Quanto mais pontos âncora tivermos para construir a linha, melhor será o # 8211; Isso se torna mais óbvio e torna a linha de tendência mais significativa!
Não deixe as saídas falsas jogarem fora.
Uma coisa que joga fora muitos comerciantes são falsas fugas.
Não ganhamos sempre o cenário de livro de texto perfeito para os nossos gráficos, as quebras falsas ocorrem frequentemente & # 8211; fazendo uma bagunça da nossa imagem ideia perfeita de uma linha de tendência.
Para & # 8216; filtrar & # 8217; as falsificações, eu uso algo que eu chamo de abordagem de denominador comum.
O objetivo é alinhar os pontos de dados comuns que criam alguma consistência óbvia, e apenas "faz sentido". Deixe-me mostrar um exemplo & # 8230;
Acima: Nós desenhamos a linha que está em conformidade com as mínimas aqui de uma maneira consistente. Nós cortamos as saídas falsas simplesmente conectando os pontos comuns.
Podemos ver como o nível se mantém como suporte aqui bem & # 8211; a falsa cria uma inconveniência que precisamos apenas cortar diretamente.
Vamos ver um exemplo de baixa & # 8230;
Alinhando os altos comuns do swing aqui para identificação. O falso se torna óbvio quando você trabalha com a consistência do mercado.
Marcando estes fora não é uma ciência exata, você está apenas olhando para marcar a estrutura geral para que você saiba quando o preço se aproxima deste nível técnico importante.
Mantenha o processo simples e óbvio. Se não é óbvio e você realmente luta para alinhar o nível & # 8211; então provavelmente não é um nível de estrutura que vale a pena se preocupar.
Oportunidades de comércio de reversão de linha de tendência.
Como sabemos que eles estão previstos para atuar como pontos de reversão, podemos segmentar sinais de negociação de reversão aqui.
Usamos muito os padrões de inversão de velas para as nossas configurações de comércio, por isso nos concentramos fortemente nelas.
Aqui está um exemplo de mercado altista com alguns sinais de reversão de castiçal & # 8230;
Nós tínhamos uma estrutura clara e óbvia aqui, que estava se mantendo bem como um suporte linear.
É lógico segmentá-lo para oportunidades de compra por meio de padrões de reversão de alta.
Este gráfico tinha uma alta fora da vela, e uma vela de rejeição de alta (ambos os sinais de reversão), formar fora do nível, comunicando-nos que a linha de tendência, mais uma vez estava segurando como suporte.
Ambas as configurações de negociação funcionaram bem.
Confira o quadro abaixo & # 8230;
Acima está um bom exemplo de baixa, agindo como resistência que viu uma boa forma de sinal de castiçal de reversão descendente.
A vela de rejeição de baixa sinaliza que ainda está sendo respeitada como resistência, e que devemos esperar preços mais baixos a seguir.
A configuração produziu uma boa liquidação!
É realmente simples, pensamento lógico & # 8211; do jeito que eu gosto das minhas idéias de trade.
Você tem uma estrutura de linha linear em que você sabe que o preço deve ser revertido. Basta combinar isso com um sinal de reversão para formar sua oportunidade comercial.
Quebra de linha de tendência!
Sabemos até agora que estas são estruturas-chave de mercado com fortes propriedades de suporte e resistência. Sempre que alguma forma de estrutura de mercado é quebrada, uma fuga violenta pode ocorrer.
Uma estratégia comum é pegar fugas na negociação de linhas de tendência.
Existem muitas maneiras de fazer isso, mas eu prefiro a confirmação de fechamento & # 8217; método.
Eu recomendo que você espere por uma vela para romper, e feche no outro lado da linha antes de ler a situação como uma fuga.
A razão para isso é porque o preço muitas vezes pode atravessar a linha, mas não se fecha além dela. Estes são conhecidos classicamente como “outs falsos” e são notórios em torno de estruturas importantes.
Muitos comerciantes são cremados por eventos falsos, porque eles são muito "gatilhos sensíveis". e bata o botão "comprar" ou "vender" no primeiro sinal de qualquer tipo de sinal que o mercado esteja estourando.
Então, podemos ver o preço quebrando a linha aqui. Muitos comerciantes de fuga iriam embarcar nisso, principalmente alimentados pela ganância para tentar pegar o breakout mais cedo & # 8230; mas isso pode ter um custo caro.
O ponto principal aqui é que a vela ainda não está fechada ainda & # 8230;
No gráfico acima, & # 8211; quando a vela finalmente se fecha, ela se fecha sob & # 8211; revelando uma armadilha de fuga!
Aqueles que foram rápidos demais para agir foram levados a uma posição ruim. Agora seu dinheiro foi levado pelo mercado e flui para os bolsos de operadores mais disciplinados.
É muito comum que linhas de tendência sejam temporariamente quebradas por preço, mesmo que apenas por alguns pips & # 8211; apenas para virar na direção oposta.
É por isso que negociar um & # 8216; no momento & # 8217; fuga é uma estratégia arriscada.
Quando você se concentra no fim da vela, suas chances melhoram de pegar uma verdadeira fuga.
Podemos ver se a foto acima, a vela realmente se fechou acima do nível, indicando que uma fuga está em andamento & # 8230;
O mercado realmente seguiu com o movimento de fuga!
Este é um bom exemplo de esperar que o fecho da vela dê uma leitura muito melhor da situação. Velas comerciais & # 8216; na mosca & # 8217; é simplesmente um jogo perigoso.
Os canais são melhor descritos como dois níveis lineares que correm em paralelo uns aos outros.
Eles se parecem e às vezes são chamados de "vias férreas".
Você pode se levantar e cair canais.
Um canal ascendente é feito de altos mais altos lineares e baixos mais altos.
As duas linhas em paralelo criam o suporte e a resistência da estrutura do canal. Como um mercado abrangente, as oscilações de preço entre essas duas linhas e os sinais de reversão podem ser captados aqui.
O canal descendente é feito de duas linhas descendentes paralelas, que alinham os altos e baixos mais baixos.
Os sinais de reversão podem ser direcionados aos limites do canal. Podemos ver na lista acima que havia alguns sinais de reversão na resistência do canal.
Eles sinalizaram a continuação do canal e foram boas oportunidades de comércio.
Estreitas de Consolidação de Preços Apertados.
Os níveis lineares podem ser usados ​​para destacar um padrão de consolidação que chamo de compressão de preço.
É um cenário em que você tem máximas mais baixas e baixas mais altas convergem umas nas outras & # 8230; criando um & # 8216; squeeze & # 8217; cenário.
Observe como os baixos mais altos e os altos mais baixos criaram dois níveis lineares de suporte e resistência que convergem entre si.
Esta "& # 8216; compressão & # 8217; de preço é um forte catalisador para uma fuga. Geralmente quando o mercado quebra e fecha fora do padrão de squeeze & # 8211; você tem movimentos muito fortes.
O acima mostra a pressão de alta e baixa de apertar o preço em um aperto, forçando uma fuga.
Esses padrões podem irromper para cima ou para baixo, então esteja preparado!
Cuidado com o padrão do megafone!
Este padrão é o oposto de um padrão de compressão.
O megafone é um padrão de expansão que pode ser identificado por duas linhas divergentes.
Os corretores de ações conhecem este padrão como o “topo” de expansão, e isso mostra que o mercado está aumentando em volatilidade & # 8211; de um jeito instável.
Padrões de megafone geralmente são criados por uma fase de mercado chamada distribuição & # 8211; onde grandes comerciantes estão despejando suas posições, e oscilações violentas de altos e baixos ocorrem.
Você verá esse padrão em seus gráficos quando o mercado criar altos e baixos mais baixos.
Observe como as oscilações se mantêm cada vez maiores à medida que mais e mais volatilidade se acumula no mercado.
Padrões da Bandeira (Linhas de Tendência do Momento do Contra)
O padrão de sinalizador é criado principalmente em um ambiente de tendência.
Flags aparecem quando uma linha de contra-tendência se forma contra o momentum de tendência prevalecente. A linha de tendência oposta age como uma represa, retendo a pressão principal & # 8230;
Acima: Veja como a linha de tendência do contador faz o backup da pressão da tendência. É a bandeira quebrar você está procurando aqui & # 8211; um bom sinal de continuação de tendência.
Os Flags realmente funcionam melhor em um ambiente de tendências claras e aparecem mais regularmente em intervalos de tempo como o h4 & # 8211; gráficos h8.
Acima: Demonstrando a parede da represa & # 8216; efeito aqui em um mercado de alta. O impulso ascendente encontra resistência na forma de uma linha contra-momento. Quando a represa se romper, boom!
Alertas de linha de tendência com minha estação de batalha MT4.
A estação de batalha é minha ferramenta MT4 que eu fiz para aqueles que estão em negociação de ação de preço, especialmente os comerciantes que usam padrões candlestick ou gráficos Renko.
Eu tenho uma linha de tendência & # 8217; filtro adicionado ao programa que basicamente irá alertá-lo para quaisquer padrões de reversão que formam fora de todos os níveis que você desenhou no seu gráfico.
Isso pode ser útil se você estiver esperando especialmente por um sinal para formar pontos técnicos que você desenhou em seu gráfico & # 8230;
Acima: Eu defini a estação de batalha para ser apenas uma preocupação com padrões de reversão que detecta os níveis que eu desenhei no gráfico. Observe como ele destaca alguns padrões de reversão nos níveis, desenhando a linha castanha através deles (as cores podem ser personalizadas)
A estação de batalha pode ser extremamente útil aqui, pois também irá alertá-lo quando encontrar estes padrões fora de sua linha.
Os alertas vêm de 3 maneiras diferentes para que você não perca uma negociação:
Alertas de e-mail de notificação por telefone inteligente Metatrader Internal Pop-up Alerts.
Mais informações sobre a Estação de Batalha podem ser encontradas aqui.
Veja os pontos iniciais dessa lição.
A análise da linha de tendência pode ser muito subjetiva & # 8211; Não caia na armadilha da análise excessiva Eles agem como níveis de suporte e resistência lineares no mercado Use 3 pontos de ancoragem para garantir que você desenhe apenas linhas de qualidade Use o método do denominador comum para & # 8216; cortar através de & # 8217; falsos outs ao desenhar linhas de tendência Os operadores do Price Action podem segmentar padrões de castiçal de reversão em linhas bem definidas Observe quando uma vela fecha além de uma linha clara para oportunidades de comércio paralelo Linhas que correm em paralelo umas às outras criam estruturas de canal Linhas convergentes criam padrões de preço # 8211; um potente catalisador de fuga As linhas divergentes criam um padrão de alta volatilidade chamado megafone! Linhas de tendência que se formam contra o momentum de tendência podem criar o padrão de bandeira (efeito de parede da barragem) Observe se as velas se fecham além do padrão da bandeira como um sinal de continuação de tendência.
Espero que você goste deste tutorial!
Nos comentários abaixo, por favor, deixe-me saber o que você pensou, ou se você gostaria de me expandir em qualquer um dos tópicos discutidos aqui.
Se você gostaria de saber mais sobre como negociar com linhas de tendência usando a reversão de castiçal e padrões de fuga de castiçal & # 8211; confira a sala de guerra para os comerciantes de ação de preço.
Desejo-lhe tudo de bom nas paradas!
Não esqueça de deixar seu comentário 🙂
Viciados em Forex & amp; especialista em negociação de ações de preço!
Aqui compartilho meu conhecimento & amp; experinces com estratégias técnicas, com foco no swing trading e breakout trading.
Eu também sou obcecado com psicologia de negociação e minha nova área de pesquisa - data mining & amp; análise quantitativa.

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A Mechanics Approach Welles Wilder - The Delta Phenomenon Study Guide (deltasociety) Woodies CCI Home Trading Course, $899 (Video 2.9 GB) (woodiescciclub) Woodies CCI System 1.3 (pfgkelly) Trading Books Abe Cofnas - The Forex Trading Course. A Self-Study Guide to Becoming a Successful Currency Trader Abell Howard - Spread Trading Adam Smith - An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations Alan Farley - 3 Swing Trading Examples (16 pages) Alan Farley - Pattern Cycles (16 pages) Alan Farley - Targeting Profitable Entry & Exit Points Alan Farley - The Master Swing Trader Tools and Techniques to Profit from Outstanding Short-Term Trading Opportunities Alan Farley - Three Swing Trading Examples Alberto Sabatini - Trading Toolkit Collection Vol 3. Gli Swing Chart Di W. D.Gann Alexander Elder - Come Into My Trading Room. 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The Psychology of Mastering the Markets Ashraf Laidi - Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis How to Profit from the Shifting Currents in Global Markets Aswath Damodaran - Investment Valuation Aswath Damodaran - The Dark Side of Valuation Valuing Old Tech, New Tech, and New Economy Companies Bambi Holzer - Getting Yours. It's Not too Late to Have the Wealth You Want Barnett Helzberg - What I Learned Before I Sold to Warren Buffett Barnett Helzberg - What I Learned Before I Sold to Warren Buffett An Entrepreneur's. Guide to Developing a Highly Successful Company Barry Eichengreen - Capital Flows and Crises Barry Rudd - Stock Patterns for Day Trading and Swing Trading Ben Gilad - Early Warning. Using Competitive Intelligence Benjamin Eden - A Course in Monetary Economics Sequential Trade, Money, and Uncertainity Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor Benjamin Graham, David Dodd - Security Analysis Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett Benjamin Van Vliet - Building Automated Trading Systems C++ Benjamin Van Vliet - Modeling Financial Markets. Using Visual Basic to Create Pricing, Trading, Risk Bennett McDowell - A Trader's Money Management System How to Ensure Profit and Avoid the Risk of Ruin Bernie Schaeffer - The Options Handbook. How to Supercharge Your Option Trading Bill Williams - New Trading Dimensions Bill Williams - New Trading Dimensions How to Profit from Chaos in Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Bill Williams - Trading Chaos Bob Froehlich - A Bull for All Seasons Bob Schmetterer - LEAP. 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How the Rich Legally Make More Money and Pay Less Tax Didier Dubois , Henri Prade - Fuzzy Sets and Systems Theory and Applications Dominick Salvatore - Principles of Economics Don Hall - Pyrapoint Don Hall - Pyrapoint for Ensign Donald Coxe - The New Reality of Wall Street Donald Delves - Stock Options and the New Rules of Corporate Accountability Donny Lowy - The Penny Stocks Trading System Doug Henwood - Wall Street How It Works and for Whom Doug Henwood - Wallstreet. How it Works and for Whom Douglas Ehrman - The Handbook of Pairs Trading Douglas Roberts - Follow the Fed to Investment Success The Effortless Strategy for Beating Wall Street Dynamic Trader Example Ed Downs - Trading the Moves Consistent Gains in All Markets (Slides) Ed Gately - Forecasting Profits Using Price & Time Ed Ponsi - Forex Patterns & Probabilities Edgar Peters - Chaos and Order in the Capital Markets Edgar Peters - Fractal Market Analisis. Applying Chaos Theory to Investment and Economics Edward Elgar - A New Financial Market Structure for East Asia Edward Thorp - The Mathematics of Gambling Edwin Jaynes - Probability Theory. The Logic of Science Edwin Lefevre - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Elaine Scott - Stocks and Bonds. Profits and Losses. A Quick Look at Financial Markets Elliot Wave 34 Lessons Eric Shawn - Paytrading. From $2000 to $1 Million in 10 Years. or Less Eric Shkolnik - When Buy Means Sell Erich Helfert - Financial Analysis Tools and Techniques. A Guide for Managers Erik Banks - Exchange-Traded Derivatives Erol Bortucene, Cynthia Macy - The Day Trade Forex System. The Ultimate Step-by-Step Guide to Online Currency Trading Filippo Stefanini - Investment Strategies of Hedge Funds Francois-Serge Lhabitant - Handbook of Hedge Funds Frank Fabozzi - Bond Markets, Analysis and Strategies Frank Fabozzi - Market Neutral Strategies Frank Fabozzi - Short Selling. 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Maximizing Corporate Value George Norton III - Valuation Maximizing Corporate Value George Pruitt - Building Winning Trading Systems with Tradestation (with CD) George Pruitt, John Hill - The Ultimate Trading Guide George Soros - Interviews George Soros - The Alchemy of Finance (Audio Book) George Soros - The Bubble of American Supremacy Geprge Jabbour, Philip Budwick - The Option Trader Handbook Strategies and Trade Adjustments Gerald A. Benjamin, Joel B. Margulis - Angel Capital How to Raise Early-Stage Private Equity Financing Gerald Appel - Technical Analysis. Power Tools for Active Investors Gerald Benjamin - Angel Capital Gerald Marisch - The W. D. Gann Method of Trading Getting Started with Tradestation Easylanguage Gillette Edmunds - Comfort Zone Investing Glenn Neely - Mastering Elliott Waves Gordon Pepper - The Liquidity Theory of Asset Prices Grant Noble - The Trader's Edge Greg Gregoriou - Commodity Trading Advisors. Risk, Performance Analysis, and Selection Gregory Morris - Candlestick Charting Explained. Times Techniques for Trading Stock and Futures Guy Cohen - The Bible of Options Strategies Guy Cohen - Volatile Markets Made Easy Guy Fraser-Sampson - Multi Asset Class Investment Strategy Halliker's Inc. - Gann Masters II Harold Bierman - Private Equity Harold Goldberg - The Power Index Method for Profitable Futures Trading Harry Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies Harry Shultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies Henry Clews and Victor Niederhoffer - Fifty Years in Wall Street Howard Abell - Digital Day Trading. Moving from One Winning Stock Position to the Next Hrishikesh Vinod, Derrick Reagle - Preparing for the Worst Incorporating Downside Risk in Stock Market Investments Hrishikesh Vinrod - Preparing for the Worst Igor Toshchakov - Beat The Odds In Forex J. D. Hamon - Advanced Commodity Trading Techniques J. L.Lord - One Strategy for all Markets J. L.Lord - Option Greeks for Profit J. L.Lord - Stocks Options and Collars J. L.Lord - Time Spreads Jack Schannep - Dow Theory for the 21st Century Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results Jack Schwager - Stock Market Wizards Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders Jack Schwager - Complete Guide to Designing and Testing Trading Systems (Lessons, PPT, ELA) Jack Schwager - Guide to Winning with Automated Trading Systems (Manual) Jack Schwager - Stock Market Wizards. Interviews with America's Top Stock Traders Jack Schwager - The New Market Wizards Conversations with America's Top Traders Jake Bernstein - How to Trade the New Single Stock Futures Jake Bernstein - Introduction to Technical Analysis Jake Bernstein - Market Masters. How Traders Think Trade And Invest Jake Bernstein - No Bull Investing Jake Bernstein - Stock Market Strategies That Work Jake Bernstein - The Compleat Day Trader Jake Bernstein - Trade Your Way to Riches Now (Seminar) James Bittman - Trading Options as a Professional James Buckley - Simulating Continuous Fuzzy Systems James Cordier - The 7 Best Kept Secrets of Building a Winning Option Selling Portfolio James Cordier & Michael Gross - The Complete Guide to Option Selling, 2nd 2009 James Gwartney - Microeconomics Private and Public Choice James Hedges - Hedges on Hedge Funds. How to Successfully Analyze and Select an Investment James Langham - Planetary Effects on Stock Market Prices James O'Loughlin - The Real Warren Buffet, Managing Capital, Leading People James Sagner - The Real World of Finance 12 Lessons for the 21st Century Jay Fishman - Standards of Value Jay Kaeppel - The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility and Timing Jay Kaeppel - The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading Jay Kaeppel - The Option Trader's Guide To Probability, Volatility And Timing Jay Kappel - The Four Biggest Mistakes In Futures Trading Jea Yu - Guide to Electronic Trading. Day Trading Techniques of Master Guerrilla Trader Jeff Augen - The Volatility Edge In Options Trading Jeff Augen - Trading Options at Expiration-Strategies and Models for Winning the Endgame Jeff Cooper - Hit and Run Trading Jeff Cooper - Intra-Day Trading Strategies. Proven Steps to Short-Term Trading Profits Jeff Cooper - The 5 Day Momentum Method Jeff Thull - Mastering the Complex Sale - How to Compete and Win When the Stakes are High! Jeffrey Cohen - Intangible Assets Valuation and Economic Benefit Jeffrey Maurer - Rich in America. Secrets to Creating and Preserving Wealth Jefrey Katz - The Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies Jens Clever - MasterTrader Jesse Livermore - How to Trade In Stocks Jesse Livermore - How to Trade Stocks Jesse Livermore - Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Jesse Livermore - Speculator King Jesse Livermore - The Stock Market Trading Secrets of the Late (1940, scaned) Jesse Livermore - Trade Like Jim Troup - Divorcing the Dow. Using Revolutionary Market Indicators to Profit from the Stealth Boom Jocelyn Pixley - Emotions in Finance Distrust and Uncertainty in Global Markets Joe DiNapoli - The Practical Application of Fibonacci Analysis to Investment Markets Joe Ross - Electronic Trading. TNT I. Gorilla Trading Stuff Joe Ross - Electronic Trading. TNT II. How-to-Win Trading Stuff Joe Ross - Futures Trading (German) Joe Ross - Traders Trick Entry (Slides) Joe Ross - Trading by the Book Joe Ross - Trading by the Minute Joe Ross - Trading Manual (Tips, Ticks, Strategies and Tactics for Traders) Joe Ross - Trading Spreads and Seasonals Joe Ross - Trading the Ross Hook Joel Greenblatt - The Little Book That Beats the Market John Murphy - Intermarket Technical Analysis John Allen Paulos - A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market John Bollinger - Bollinger on Bollinger Bands John Burley - 25 Creative Real Estate Marketing Strategies John Campbell, Luis Viceira - Strategic Asset Allocation John Carter - Mastering the Trade John Crane - Time, Price and Pattern. Time Reaction Swing (ino) John Daly - Pricing for Profitability Activity-Based Pricing for Competitive Advantage John Ehlers - Mesa and Trading Market Cycles John Ehlers - Rocket Science for Traders John Grisham - The Broker John Hill, George Pruitt - The Ultimate Trading Guide John Hull - Options, Futures, and Other Derivative Securities John Knight - Stephen Satchell-Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets John Leslie Livingstone & Grossman - The Portable Mba in Finance and Accounting John Mauldin - Just One Thing John Murphy - Chart Pattern Recognition for Metastock John Murphy - Charting Made Easy John Murphy - Intermarket Technical Analysis John Murphy - Simple Sector Trading Strategies John Murphy - Technical Analysis of the Finacial Markets John Murphy - Trend Forecasting With Technical Analysis John Person - A Complete Guide to Technical Trading Tactics John Person - Candlestick and Pivot Point Trading Triggers John Piper - The Way to Trade John Tjia - Building Financia l Modeling John Tracy - The Fast Forward MBA in Finance Johnatan Mun - Real Options Analysis Course. Business Cases and Software Applications Johnathan Mun - Real Options Analysis - Tools and Techniques for Valuing Strategic Investments and Decisions Jon Najarian - How I Trade Options Joseph Benning - Trading Stategies for Capital Markets Joseph G. Nicholas - Hedge Fund of Funds Investing An Investor's Guide Joseph Mathai - Real-Time Systems Specification, Verification and Analysis Joseph Rondione - Gold. Symmetrycs Trading Method Joshua Kahr, Michael Thomsett - Real Estate Market Valuation and Analysis Juan Romero - The Art of Artificial Evolution Jyh-Shing Roger Jang - Neuro-Fuzzy and Soft Computing Kathleen Sindell - Investing Online for Dummies Kathy Lien - Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market Kathy Lien - Day Trading the Currency Market Technical and Fundamental Strategies To Profit from Market Swings Kathy Lien & Boris Schlossberg - High Probability Trading Setups for the Currency Market Kazuo Tanaka, Hua Wang - Fuzzy Control Systems Design and Analysis A Linear Matrix Inequality Approach Ken Wolff - Trading on Momentum. Advanced Techniques for High Percentage Day Trading Ken Wolff - Trading on Momentum. Advanced Techniques for High-Percentage Day Trading Kenneth Friedman - Myths of the Free Market Kenneth Little - Bear-Proof Investing Kenneth Shaleen - Technical Analysis & Options Strategie Kenneth Trester - 101 Option Trading Secrets Kevin Dowd - Measuring Market Risk Kevin Kraus - Advanced Options Trading Kim Charles - Swift Trader. Perfecting the Art of Day Trading Lakhmi Jain , N. Martin - Fusion Of Neural Networks, Fuzzy Systems And Genetic Algorithms Larry Connors - Connors on Advanced Trading Strategies Larry Pesavento - Astro Cycles. The Trader's Viewpoint Larry Pesavento - Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition Larry Pesavento - Planetary Harmonics of Speculative Markets Larry Pesavento - Profitable Patterns for Stock Trading Larry Pesavento, Leslie Jouflas - Trade What You See How To Profit from Pattern Recognition Larry Sanders - Trading Strategies Larry Williams - How to Trade Better Larry Williams - Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading Larry Williams - Million Dollar Stock Market Idea Larry Williams - The Right Stock at the Right Time - Prospering in the Coming Good Years Larry Williams - The Right Stock at the Right Time. Prospering in the Coming Good Years Larry Williams - The Secret of Selecting Stocks for Immediate and Substantial Gains Larry Williams - Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders. Secrets of the COT Report Lawrence Carrel - ETFs for the Long Run Lawrence Cunningham - How to Think Like Benjamin Graham and Invest Like Warren Buffett Lawrence McMillan - Profit With Options Essential Methods For Investing Success Lawrence McMillan - Profit with Options. Essential Methods for Investing Success Lee Lowell - Get Rich with Options Legh Stevens - Essential Technical Analysis. Tools and Techniques to Spot Market Trends Leigh Stevens - Essential Technical Analysis Tools and Techniques to Spot Market Trends Leslie Masonson - All About Market Timing Leslie Masonson - All About Market Timing. The Easy Way to Get Started Leszek Rutkowski - Flixible Neuro-Fuzzy System. Structures, Learning and Performance Evaluation Lico Reis - Dictionary of Financial and Business Terms Linda Mead - Investing with Giants Tried and True Stocks That Have Sustained the Test of Time Linda Raschke - Special Report. The Advance Decline Market Buster Linda Raschke - Street Smarts. High Probability Short Term Trading Strategies Lotfi Zadeh - Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Information Granulation Theory Lotfi Zadeh , King-Sun Fu - Fuzzy Sets and Their Applications to Cognitive and Decision Processes Louis Mendelsohn - Forex Trading using Intermarket Analysis Louis Mendelsohn, John Murphy - Trend Forecasting with Technical Analysis Louis Rukeyser - Secrets of Great Investors (Audio Book) Ludwig Mises - The Theory of Money and Credit Magazine - Active Trader Magazine (activetradermag) Magazine - Australian Tech Analyst Assoc (ataa. au) Magazine - Currency Trader Magazine (currencytradermag) Magazine - Option Trader Magazine (optionstradermag) Magazine - Traders World Past Issue Articles on CD Malcolm Robinson - An Introduction to Direct Access Futures Trading Marek Capinski, Tomasz Zastawniak - Mathematics for Finance. An Introduction to Financial Engineering Marion Brach - Real Options in Practice Mark Boucher - Short-Term Trading Course Mark Boucher - The Hedge Fund Edge. Maximum Profit, Minimum Risk. Global Trading Trend Strategies Mark Clatworthy - Transnational Equity Analysis Mark Conway - Professional Stock Trading. System Design and Automation Mark Conway, Aaron Behle - Professional Stock Trading System Design and Automation Mark Douglas - The Disciplined Trader Mark Douglas - Trading in the Zone Mark Fenton-O'Creevy - Traders. Risks, Decisions and Management in Financial Markets Mark Fisher - The Logical Trader. Applying a Method to the Madness Mark Helweg, David Stendahl - Dynamic Trading Indicators. Winning with Value Charts and Price Action Mark Helweg, David Stendhal - Dynamic Trading Indicators Winning with Value Charts and Price Action Profile Mark Jurik - Computerized Trading. Maximizing Day Trading and Overnight Profits Mark Mcrae - Sure-Fire Forex Trading Mark Whistler - Trading Pairs-Capturing Profits and Hedging Risk with Statistical Arbitrage Strategies Mark Wolfinger - Create Your Own Hedge Fund Marshall Jones - Learn To Day-Trade the E-Mini S&P 500. Simple-as-123 Martin Fridson, Fernando Alvarez - Financial Statement Analysis A Practitioner's Guide Martin Pring - Investment Psychology Explained, Classic Strategies to Beat the Markets Martin Pring - Investment Psychology. Explained Classic Strategies to Beat the Markets Martin Pring - Martin Pring on Market Momentum Martin Pring - Technical Analysis Explained Martin Pring - Technical Analysis for Short-Term Traders (Tutorial) Martin Stone - Secure Your Financial Future Investing in Real Estate Martin Weiss - Crash Profits. Make Money when Stocks Sink and Soar Max Ansbacher - The New Options Market Michael Covel - Trend Following. How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets Michael Duane - The FOREX Chartist Companion. A Visual Approach to TA Michael Gur - The Symmetry Wave Trading Method Michael Hyman - New Ways for Managing Global Financial Risks The Next Generation Michael Jenkins - The Geometry of Stock Market Profits Michael McDonald - Predict Market Swings with Technical Analysis Michael Panzner - The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World Michael Pompian - Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management Michael Pompian - Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases Michael Sincere - Understanding Stocks Michael Thomsett - Getting Started in Options Michael Thomsett - Winning With Stocks The Smart Way to Pick Investments, Manage Your Portfolio, and Maximize Profits Michael Turner - Daytrading into the Millenium MichaelВ Maiello - Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact. 85 Maxims of Wall Street and What They Really Mean Michel Fleuriet - Finance a Fine Art Microsoft Office Excel 2003 Inside Out Mike Schiano - Spend Your Way to Wealth Mike Sincere - Understanding Stocks Mitch Zacks - Ahead of the Market. The Zacks Method for Spotting Stocks Early in any Economy Money Management Strategies by John Wiley & Sons (don't know author) Moorad Choudhry - Fixed Income Securities and Derivatives Handbook Analysis and Valuation Murray Rothbard - History of Money and Banking in The United States Murray Rothbard - Making Economic Sense Murray Rothbard - The Mystery of Banking Murray Ruggiero - Cybernetic Trading Strategies Nancy Tengler - New Era Value Investing Napoleon Hill - Think and Grow Rich Nassim Taleb - Dynamic Hedging. Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options Nassim Taleb - Fooled by Randomness Natalie Jenkins - You Paid How Much for That. How to Win at Money Without Losing at Love Nauzer Balsara - Money Management Strategies for Futures Traders NedВ Davis - The Triumph of Contrarian Investing Nicolas Darvas - How I Made 2 Million In The Stock Market Nigel Da Costa Lewis - Operational Risk with Excel and VBA Applied Statistical Methods for Risk Management Nigel Gibson - Essential Finance Nils Rasmussen - Process Improvement for Effective Budgeting and Financial Reporting Nina Golyandina - Analysis of Time Series Structure. SSA and Related Techniques Noel Amenc - Portfolio Theory and Performance Analysis Noel Amenc, Veronique Le Sourd - Portfolio Theory and Performance Analysis Oic Book Various Authors - Options Essential Concepts and Trading Strategies Oliver Valez - Core Trading for a Living (pristine) Oliver Valez - Guerrilla Trading Tactics (pristine) Oliver Valez - Micro Trading for a Living (pristine) Oliver Valez - Option Trading The Pristine Way (pristine) Oliver Velez - Swing Trading Tactics (pristine) Omega Research - Trading for a Living Seminar (omegaresearch) Options Essential Concepts and Trading Strategies Options Trading Primer By Marketwise Trading School Pat Dorsey - The 5 Rules for Successful Stock Investing Patrick Brown - An Introduction to the Bond Markets Patrick Mikula - Gann's Scientific Methods Unveiled Patrick Mikula - The Best Trendline Methods of Alan Andrews & 5 New Trendline Techniques Patrick Young and Charles Sidey - Single Stock Futures Paul Collier - Accounting for Manag ers Paul McCulley - Your Financial Edge Paul Sarnoff - Jesse Livermore. Speculator-King Paul Wilmott - FAQ in Quantitative Finance Paul Wilmott - Introduces Quantitative Finance Paul Wilmott - Quantitative Finance vol 1-3 2nd Ed Paul Wilmott - The Best of Wilmott vol 1-2 Paul Wilmott - The Mathematics of Fiancial Derivatives Pedro Marcal - Market Timing with Technical Analysis Perry Kaufman - Smarter Trading. Improving Perfomance in Changing Markets Perry Kaufman - Trading Systems and Methods Peter Bernstain - Against the Gods. The Remarkable Story of Risk Peter Boer - Technology Valuation Solution Peter J. Tanous - Investment Gurus A Road Map to Wealth from the World's Best Money Managers Peter James - Option Theory Peter Navarro - When the Market Moves, Will You Be Ready Peter Steidlmayer - Steidlmayer on Markets. A New Approach to Trading Peter Zhang - Exotic Options Philippe Jorion - Financial Risk Manager Handbook Phillip Jenks - The Global Investor Book of Investing Rules. Advice from 150 Market Masters Ping Chen, Sardar Islam - Optimal Control Models in Finance. A New Computational Approach Professor Gary Koop - Analysis of Financial Data R. J.Shook - The Winners Circle. Wallstreets Best Mutual Fund Managers Rahul Oka - The Archaeology of Trading Systems, Part 1 - Towards a New Trade Synthesis Raj Jain - Art of Computer Systems Performance Analysis Techniques Ralf Welborn, Vince Kasten - The Jericho Principle How Companies Use Strategic Collaboration to Find New Sources of Value Ralph Vince - Portfolio Management Ralph Vince - The Mathematics of Money Management. Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders Rich Swannell - Market Forecasting with the New Refined Elliott Wave Principle Pattern Recognition Sy Richard Arms - Trading with Equivolume (ArmsInsider) Richard Brandt - Capital Instincts. Life as a Entrepreneur, Financier and Athelete Richard Brealey - Fundamentals Corporate Finance Richard Ferri - Protecting Your Wealth in Good Times and Bad Richard Imperiale - The Micro Cap Investor Richard Imperiale - The Micro Cap Investor Strategies for Making Big Returns in Small Companies Richard Love - Superformance Stocks An Investment Strategy for the Individual Investor Based on the 4-Year Political Cycle Richard Schabacker - Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits. The Real Bible of Technical Analysis Richard Smitten - Trade Like Jesse Livermore Richard Weissman - Mechanical Trading Systems. Pairing Trader Psychology with Technical Analysis Richard Welssman - Mechanical Trading Systems Richard Wiseman - Mechanical Trading Systems. Pairing Trader Psycology with Technical Analysis Richard Wyckoff - The Day Traders Bible Richard Wyckoff - The Day Trader's Bible. Or My Secrets of Day Trading in Stocks Richart Irwin - Options Essential Concepts and Trading Strategies Rob Booker - Adventures of a Currency Trader Rob Booker - Adventures of a Currency Trader A Fable about Trading, Courage, and Doing the Right Thing Rob Reider - Managing Cash Flow Rob Reider, Peter Heyler - Managing Cash Flow An Operational Focus Rober Prechter, Alfred Frost - Elliott Wave Principle Robert Aliber - Manias, Panics, and Crashes A History of Financial Crises Robert Allens - Money Power System for Making Your Real Estate Fortune Robert Balan - Elliott Wave Principle Applied to the FOREX Robert Deel - Strategic Analysis and Trading Tactics (ino) Robert Deel - The Strategic Electronic Day Trader Robert Dubil - An Arbitrage Guide to Financial Markets Robert Edwards - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends Robert Edwards & John Magee - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends Robert Edwards, John Magee - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends Robert Elliott - Mathematics of Financial Mar kets Robert Fischer - Candlesticks Fibonacci and Chart Pattern Trading Tools Robert Fischer - Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders Robert Fischer, Jens Fischer - Candlesticks, Fibonacci, and Chart Pattern Trading Tools Robert Fisher - Fibonacci Applications and Strategies for Traders Robert Hagstrom - The Warren Buffett Way Robert Hahn - High Stakes Antitrust The Last Hurrah Robert Jorgensen - Individually Managed Accounts an Investor's Guide Robert Kast - Economics and Finance of Risk and of the Future Robert Krausz - Fibonacci Traders Journals, No 1-14 Robert Krausz - W. D. Gann Treasure Discovered Simple Trading Plans for Stocks & Commodities Robert Miner - High Probability Trading Strategies Robert Miner - Practical Elliott Wave Trading Strategies Robert Prechter - The Major Works of R. N. Elliott Robert Slater - Soros Unauthorized Biography Robert Ward - Options And Options Trading. A Simplified Course Ron Ianieri - Option Theory and Trading Russell Olson - The Handbook for Investment Committee Members How to Make Prudent Investments for Your Organization Ryan Jones - Money Management Ryan Jones - The Trading Game Ryan Jones - The Trading Game Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions Sam Cross - All About. The Foreign Exchange Market in the USA Scott Carney - The Harmonic Trader Selena Maranjian - The Motley Fool Money Guide Serge Lhabitant - Handbook of Hedge Funds Sharon Saltzgiver Wright - Getting Started in Bonds Shelagh Heffernan - Modern Banking Sheldon Lin - Lecture Notes in Mathematical Finance Springer Finance - The Mathematics of Arbitrage Stan Weinstein - Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Stan Weinstein - Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets Stanley Feldman - Principles of Private Firm Valuation Stephane Reverre - The Complete Arbitrage Deskbook Stephen Green - China's Stockmarket. A Guide to Its Progress, Players and Prospects Stephen Poser - Elliott Wave Theory for Short Term and Intraday Trading (ino) Steprhen Huxley, Brent Burns - Asset Dedication How to Grow Wealthy with the Next Generation of Asset Allocation Steve Mitchell - Shortcuts & Secrets to Winning the Stock Market Game (about-secrets) Steve Nison - Beyond Candlesticks New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed Steve Nison - Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques. A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East Steve Nison - The Candlestick Course Steven Achelis - Technical Analysis from A to Z Steven Karris - Mathematics for Business, Science, and Technology with MATLAB and Excel Steven Shreve - Stochastic Calculus and Finance Steven Stralser - MBA in a Day. What You Would Learn at the Top Tier Business Schools Stuart McCrary - Hedge Fund Course Sumner Levine - The Financial Analyst's Handbook. Only Market Timing and Technical Analysist Ted Miller - Kiplinger's Practical Guide to Your Money The Greatest Bull Market In History The Pocketbook of Economic Indicators (portfoliocrafter) Thomas Au - A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing Thomas Barton, William Shenkir, Paul Walker - Making Enterprise Risk Management Pay Off Thomas Bulkowski - Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns Thomas DeMark - DeMark on Day-Trading Options Thomas DeMark - New Market Timing Techniques Thomas DeMark - The New Science of Technical Analysis Thomas Gebert, Paul Husgen - Candlestick Charttechnik (German) Thomas Long - Owner's Handbook. New Trading Techniques Using Planetary Harmonics Thomas Lucier - How to Make Money with Real Estate Options Thomas McCafferty - Options Demystified. A Self-Teaching Guide Thomas Moore - Last Chance to Get It Right! - How to Avoid Eight Deadly Mistakes Made With Money Thomas Ryan, Chad Jacobs - Using Ivestor Relations to Maximize Equity Valuation Tim Hindle - Guide to Management Ideas Tim Ord - The Secret Science of Price and Volume Techniques for Spotting Market Trends, Hot Sectors, and the Best Stocks Toby Crabel - Day Trading with Short-Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout Tom Joseph - A Mechanical Trading System Tom Joseph - Advanced Get. Applying Technical Analysis Tom Williams - The Undeclared Secrets That Drive The Stock Market Tomas Bjoerk - Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time Tony Oz - How I Make a Living Trading Stocks Tony Plummer - Forecasting Financial Markets The Psychology of Successful Investing Tushar Chande - Beyond Technical Analysis. How to Develop and Implement a Winning Trading System Tushar Chande, Stanley Kroll - The New Technical Trader Tyler Hicks - 209 Fast Spare-Time Ways to Build Zero Cash into 7 Figures a Year in Real Estate Valluru Rao - C++ Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic Van Tharp - Special Report on Money Management Van Tharp - Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom Vern Hayden - Getting an Investing Game Plan. Creating it, Working it, Winning it Vijay Gupta - Statistical Analysis with Excel Vladimir Daragan - How to Win the Stock Market Game. Developing Short-Term Stock Trading Strategies W. D.Gann - 45 Years in Wall Street W. D.Gann - Forecasting W. D.Gann - How to Trade, 1935 W. D.Gann - Master Calculator for Time Periods, 1955 W. D.Gann - Master Charts W. D.Gann - Master Forecasting Method and Unpublished Stock Market Forecasting Courses W. D.Gann - Method for Forecasting the Stock Market W. D.Gann - New Stock Trend Detector W. D.Gann - Original Charting, 1936 W. D.Gann - Scientific Stock Forecasting W. D.Gann - Speculation a Profitable Profession. A Course of Instructions on Stocks. Volume 1 W. D.Gann - The Basis of My Forecasting Method W. D.Gann - The Magic Word W. D.Gann - Truth of the Stock Tape Wall Street Courier - The eBook of Technical Market Indicators Walles Wilder - The Delta Phenomenon or the Hidden Order in All Markets Walter Banks - Fuzzy Logic in Embedded Microcomputers and Control Systems Walter Bressert - Timing is Everything. The Cycle Trading Pattern Manual Warren Boroson - Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett Warren Boroson - Pick Stocks Like Warren Buffett Warren Ruppel - Governmental Accounting Made Easy Welles Wilder - The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in All Markets Werner Rosenberger - Risk-adjusted Lending Conditions An Option Pricing Approach William Blau - Momentum, Direction and Divergence William Bronchick - Financing Secrets of a Millionaire Real Estate Investor William Eng - The Day Trader's Manual. Theory, Art, and Science of Profitable Short-Term Investing William Gallacher - The Options Edge. Winning the Volatility Game with Options on Futures William Mclaren - Gann Made Easy William O'Neil - How to Make Money in Stocks. A Wining System in Good Times or Bad William Rini - Mathematics of the Securities Industry William Webster - Accounting for Managers Wojciech Gryc - Neural Network Predictions of Stock Price Fluctuations Yale Hirsch, Jeffrey Hirsch - Stock Traders Almanac 2005 Yen Yee Chong - Investment Risk Management Zoran Kolundzic - E-mini Trading Course Trading Video Adam Hewison - The Secrets of Profitable Trading with MarketClub Alan Farley - Targeting Profitable Entry & Exit Points Andy Green - Practical Tools to Enhance Your Trading Decisions Angelo Namrevo - The Simple Trading System Bill Kaiser - Successful Online S&P Day Trading Bill Williams - Chaos. The New Map for Traders Bill Williams - The Practical Fractal Charles LeBeau - A New Look at Exit Strategies Chris Manning - Proven Chart Patterns. Key Indicators for Success in Today's Markets Curtis Arnold - Using Pattern Probability to Trade with the Trend David Lerman - Exploiting Volatily. Mastering Equity and Index Options David Nassar - Day Trading Smart David Nassar - Foundational Analysis. Selecting Winning Stock David Stendahl - Effective Methods for Evaluating Trading Systems David Stendahl - The Systematic Trader. Maximizing Trading Systems & Money Management Delta Society - Delta Video Workshop (Video 508 MB) (deltasociety) Dennis Minogue - How to Build Fortune. Trading Stock Index Futures Deron Wagner - Sector Trading Strategies. Turning Steady Profits Even In Stubborn Markets Don Wellenreiter - Hedging Your Stock Portfolio Ed Downs - Winning Chart Patterns. 7 Patterns That Really Work Elliott Wave Educational Video Series $1199 (10 dvds, video) (elliottwave) George Dagnino - Methods to Predict, Plan for & Profit in Any Market Cycle George Fontanills - Option Spreads Made Easy Glen Ring - How to Capture Big Profits from Explosive Markets Greg Capra - Intra-Day Trading Tactics Jack Schwager - Market Wizard Insights Jack Schwager - Winning Methods of the Market Wizards Jake Bernstein - Mining for Golden Trading Opportunities James Bittman - Investing with LEAPS. What You Should Know About Long Term Investing Jeanne Long - Gann's Secret (Video 432 MB) (galacticinvestor) Jeanne Long's Galactic Trader Seminar (Video 2.78 GB) (galacticinvestor) Jeff Cooper - Intra-day Trading Strategies. Proven Steps to Trading Profits Joe Corona - Professional Options Trading College (Videos & Manuals 11.2 GB) Joe Duffy - Spotting Solid Short-Term Opportunities Joe Krutsinger - Building Winning Trading Systems John Carter - Trading for Income John Hill, George Pruitt - How to Evaluate Systems John Markman - Swing Trading Essentials John Templeton - Trading In The Buff (Video, Manual) (tradinginthebuff) Jon Najarian - Gaining Option Leverage. Using Market Makers Tactics Jon Najarian - Trade Like a Pitbull. Major Pit Trading Ken Trester - Option Trading Camp - 8 DVD Larry McMillan - Four Powerful Rules to Successful Option Trading Larry McMillan - Option Trading Indicators and Patterns for Increasing Profits Larry McMillan - Reducting the Risk of Option Trading Larry Williams - A Dose of Reality Larry Williams - The Money Tree Course, 4 DVD Larry Williams - The Next Step in Market Analysis Lawrence Gavanagh - Option Screening. Finding Profitable Trades Mark Douglas - Mental Toughness Martin Pring - Getting New Insights from Old Indicators Martin Pring - Technical Analysis for Short-Term Traders Marty Kearney - LEAPS Trading Strategies Mike Halloran - Option Essentials Mike Rocca - Commodities Mitch Holland - When Technicals Become Fundamental Factors Mitch Zacks - Discovering the Hot Stocks Early MTI Forex Education, $5000 (markettraders) Murray Ruggiero - Mechanising Some of the World's Classic Trading Systems Murray Ruggiero - Using Intermarket Analysis to Make Smarter Traders Peter Bain - Trade Currencies Like The Big Dogs (Video 2 Gb) Price Headley - Using Option Charts to Time Trades & Boost Profits Rob Kepler - Fixed Income Robert Prechter - Trading the Elliott Wave Indicator Ron Michaelsen - Futures Trading Superstars Ron Michaelsen - Roadmap to Riches Ron Shelton - Using Gaming Theory to Gain an Edge Roy Habben - Putting Probabilites on Your Side Roy Habben - Seven Sign Posts to Market Analysis Succe ss Roy Habben - The Michanics of Futures Trading Russ Wasendory - An Introduction to Trading Futures Online Russell Sands - I am a Turtle Russell Sands - What I Learning from the Best Trader in the World Russell Wasendorf - Futures and Options from A to Z Ryan Jones - Video 6 DVD Sheldon Knight - New Ways to Profit from Seasonal and Weekly Price Patterns Sheldon Natenberg - Mastering Option Trading Volatility Strategies Sherman McCellan - Timing the Market with Unique Indicators Steve Briese - Commitment of Traders Analysis Steve Briese, Glen Ring - Formula to a Fortune Steve Nison - Profiting From Forex (Video 2.3 Gb, Manual) Steve Poser - Elliott Wave Sunny Harris - Trading 101. Starting Your Trading Program Ted Tesser - Million Dollars Tax The Insider Code Agora Forex Trading Course (10 CD, Video 3 Gb) Tom Cronin - How to Use Spreads to Construct a Trading Roadmap Tom Dorsey - Using Point and Figure Charts to Analyze Markets Tom Grentille - Using Computerized Strategies to Trade Fut ures and Options Tony Ciccone - Option Spreads. Generating Exceptional Returns Van Tharp - Disciplined Trading. How to Trade Your Wav to Financial Freedom Van Tharp - Position Sizing Wall Street Mentors - 3 Step Investing Process, 6 DVD Walter Bressert - Identifying Tradable Cyclies Walter Bressert - Using Cycles to Sell Tops and Buy Bottoms William Dale - Foreign Exchange William McLaren - Trading the Fast Moves for Maximum Profit.
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A proposta de imigração favorecida por Trump reduziria a oferta de trabalho e o potencial de crescimento da economia a longo prazo. & raquo; Consulte Mais informação.
Os banqueiros centrais precisam seguir a economia, que está mostrando força, mas ainda pouca inflação, diz o presidente do Fed de St. Louis, James Bullard. & raquo; Consulte Mais informação.
O Goldman Sachs está praticamente certo de que o Federal Reserve aumentará as taxas de juros no mês que vem. & raquo; Consulte Mais informação.
A inflação que está um pouco abaixo da meta não deve impedir o Fed de elevar as taxas de juros, disse o presidente do Fed, Randal Quarles. & raquo; Consulte Mais informação.
Os participantes do mercado distorceram as expectativas sobre quanto os preços ao consumidor vão mudar no futuro, disse um economista à CNBC na quinta-feira.
Autoridades do Federal Reserve (Fed, o banco central dos EUA) vêem um crescimento maior e um aumento na inflação como justificativa para continuar aumentando as taxas de juros gradualmente.
O presidente do Fed de Dallas, Robert Kaplan, citou o crescimento econômico alimentado pelos recentes cortes de impostos e por uma economia global mais forte.
A grave escassez de casas a preços acessíveis causou uma queda acentuada e inesperada no fechamento de janeiro.
Primeiro para o novo chefe do banco central é como o mercado reage aos detalhes da última reunião de Janet Yellen.
O presidente do Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, Patrick Harker, disse que ainda acha que apenas dois aumentos de taxa este ano são "provavelmente apropriados".
As vendas de residências nos EUA caíram inesperadamente pelo segundo mês consecutivo em janeiro.
"Midwest é melhor", relata SmartAsset.
Você pode parar de se preocupar com o efeito das altas taxas de juros sobre as ações por enquanto, disse um estrategista do J. P. Morgan na quarta-feira.
Os minutos do Fed na quarta-feira podem ter mais impacto do que o normal se fornecerem informações sobre inflação e taxas de juros.
Onze cidades ainda em funcionamento para o Amazon HQ2 estão em estados sem leis de não discriminação. Os defensores dos direitos dos homossexuais tomaram conhecimento.
O aumento nos gastos com a defesa não vai resolver os problemas de prontidão dos militares nem nos tornar mais seguros, diz o tenente-coronel aposentado Daniel Davis.
A geração do milênio provavelmente excederá seu orçamento em habitação em Nova York, segundo relatórios do New York Business Journal.
Denver é a cidade mais desafiadora do país para compradores de casas pela primeira vez, informa o Denver Business Journal.
A confiança das pequenas empresas atinge um recorde em 2018, com o aumento do otimismo em relação à reforma tributária, de acordo com a pesquisa CNBC / SurveyMonkey Small Business.

Article of the Day, from Kim Zussman.
The book Gotham by Burrows and M. Wallace details the changes in the fortunes of the American economy and New York from 1600 to 1900. As it moved from Dutch rule to English rule and from whig control to republican Jeffersonian control. It is amazing how many panics and complete major depression in the economy came almost every several years. All the depressions were recovered in the next year or two.
A recent visit to Muir woods shows the same dynamics to the growth of trees after fires although the fires were not as frequent. Indeed there hasn't been a major fire there in 150 years. Apparently the trees have developed resistance to fires.
Anatomy of a Wipeout, from Jim Sogi.
I've been surfing for many decades and once was the Grandmaster Champion of my island. We had some big waves a week ago, and it was one of those magic sessions where the wave comes right to where you are sitting in the ocean, you turn take a couple of strokes and drop in and ride to the end. I got three big waves without even getting my hair wet. A perfect session. As traders, you all know the feeling.
But things don't always go so well. Positioning and timing are the key elements in surfing and catching a wave. If you are not perfect, you can be off balance. You are less able to compensate for wind chop, or warbles in the waves. If you are too late, you might get thrown 20 or 30 feet through the air. Or if you are too far inside the outside set can catch you and you get "caught inside". Or you can just get thrown off balance on the drop in by a small chop. The initial place where the wave breaks is usually the most violent with the most energy. The energy from huge hurricanes in the mid Pacific have traveled thousands of miles and focus on you.
As you fly through the air upside down you have time to think about the vicious thrashing in store and have to brace for the impact with the water and the hundreds of tons of water flying through the air with the consistency of cement about to snap your neck and arms off. People have broken bones in wipeouts and worse. You also try to get a breath of air to survive the hold down. Upon impact with the water, often as not, your breath can get knocked out, as you are driven down up to 30 feet deep. The water throws you around like rag doll inside a washing machine. Everything is dark. You have no idea which way is up or down. The key here is to relax and conserve oxygen. Though the biggest waves are only 20 seconds apart, if you don't catch a breath at the end of the first wave, drowning becomes ar real possibility. Your board is attached to your leg by an elastic cord and will drag you backwards at high speed. Better, the board will float towards the surface and pull you up from the depths towards the surface. At the surface, the foam can be a foot or two thick making it hard to catch a breath. The air in the water does not float your body as you struggle to catch a breath. As you break the surface, the worst thing to see is another 20 foot wave looming directly overhead ready to smash you down again. You know you are in trouble as your head starts spinning from lack of oxygen. You feel like vomiting. You fight panic and fear. Eventually within 20 to 40 seconds, as you know it will, the waves pass and you catch a wave.
At that point you are utterly exhausted. Your life force is near zero. However, its not over yet. By this time, the currents and waves have pushed you near the rocks and you have summon your last strength to paddle as hard as you can to avoid being smashed to death on the rocks. After catching your breath, you paddle out to rinse and repeat. I love surfing. As traders, you all know this feeling of the wipeout as well.
Do SS and Yourself a Favor and Don’t Retire, from Kim Zussman.
Researchers think the reason is linked to Social Security and retirement.
About one-third of Americans immediately claim Social Security at 62 and 10% of men retire in the month they turn 62, according to researchers.
Stefanie Harvey writes:
Locally, this was called "Lockheed" syndrome because so many men who retired from Lockheed in Northern California (usually at 65) died within a few months.
Perhaps there is utility in the gig economy (/sarcasm).
anonymous writes:
I think in order to get a more robust picture of what's really happening here, the researchers need to dig deeper into the demographics of the people involved.
They hinted at that with the comment about laborers retiring young.
I've done a lot of work with laborers of the country in my 31 years in this business. One recurring theme I've noticed about those laborers (blue collar types) is that their bodies are broken down and stop working around 60. Really, to be fair, their bodies are broken down in their late 30's and early 40's. If you've ever seen a bunch of union laborers, one thing you notice is that by the time they're around 35 - 40, they look 10 years older than white collar workers of the same age group.
These blue collar workers live a hard life, they party hard (smoke, drink, get DUI's), and eat in a less healthy manner…and die sooner.
anonymous writes:
This phenomenon was also observed, anecdotally, by certain friends of mine and I with respect to the retirement of senior NCOs - Sergeants Major (SGM) and Command Sergeants Major (CSM). They seemed to, despite their fitness and stoic outlook on life die uncommonly young (late 50s and early 60s). Virtually all of them had, in the latter 75% of their career, virtually abandoned the alcohol consumption that so often characterizes pre-E-5/E-6 time, and none were smokers.
Larry Williams writes:
My psychiatrist son adds : " Don't forget, studies also show delaying retirement also delays onset of alzheimer disease."
Pete Earle writes:
You are going to die either way.
The idea would be to make enough the SS was a rounding error and you can do whatever the hell you want for as long as you want.
Term Structure Vix, from anonymous.
The current VIX is priced above both the first (F1) and second month Vix futures (F2). I looked at times when Vix>F2 and the subsequent moves of SP500 holding until Vix<F2, since 2012, non-overlapping.
The average length of the trade is 3 days. The current trade was entered on 1/31, 9 days ago and down -160 points and not included above because it is still open. After this long it is another 11 days on average before the term structure flips back to contango and this trade would be exited.
Smart Money vs. Amateurs, from Bill Rafter.
There has been some comment on the timing of the so-called "smart money". Just how good are our betters at trading these exciting markets?
While we have no specific knowledge of who bought when, we have an algorithm that identifies when the average "smart money" goes from bullish to bearish, and vice-versa, while at the same time the amateur money is betting in the opposite direction. This link will give you its recent history.
This is a sentiment indicator and it has its theoretical roots in the Efficient Market Hypothesis. It plots the best fit over successive N days, where N varies from very short term to say more than a year. The best of the best fits are the smarties, and the worst of the best fits are the amateurs. The smarts are attentive and the amateurs tend to be complacent. This model is not perfect but it tells some interesting tales. At the most recent peak, the smart money turned bearish as of the close on January 30th. They have not yet turned bullish as of February 12th.
5% Decline in a Week, from Steve Ellison.
Since 2006, I find 13 non-overlapping instances in which the S&P 500 was down 5% or more since 5 trading days ago. The average net change during the next 5 days was 2.5% with a standard deviation of 3.7% and a drift-adjusted t score of 2.32.
Date 5-day change Next 5 day change.
11/11/2008 -11.0% -3.0%
Std deviation 3.7%
An Interesting Metric, from Jim Sogi.
An interesting metric to be tested from a Bloomberg article in a vein similar to Bill's metrics.
The entire VIX futures curve is in backwardation, a signal that investors expect more volatility in the near-term. That's seen in the contract pricing, where front-month contracts are more expensive than second-month. The inverse is normally true.
"The M1-M2 VIX futures spread can be used as another temperature gauge for the market, just like spot VIX," said Dave Roberts, an independent trader of volatility derivatives and associated products. "That graph works really well in tight time frames when the curve is in extreme backwardation (like now) because the M1-M2 spread is currently very sensitive to the S&P 500's movements (both up and down)."
Everyone is on the Inflation Bandwagon, from Anatoly Veltman.
Larry Williams writes:
I’d defer to Hoisington Capital over PTJ on inflation.
anonymous writes:
Hoisington has an interesting comment about the low savings rate now vs the normal 8%. Ancedotally I’m seeing lots of consumer spending and travel due to the “bull market” euphoria.
Advice for a Young Person Who Wants a Possible Career in Markets, from anonymous.
A 20 year old chess associate of mine has asked me about a possible career in markets. He's International Master strength at chess (close to getting the title), a second year maths undergraduate, has an interest in poker and was in the Bolton Wanderers soccer academy until he was 16.
I've suggested he reads up on the field and sent him links to the Daily Speculations book list. What other steps should he take?
Peter Pinkhasov writes:
Not that I know anything, but I lost my roll a few times with all the money I've saved up from folding towels at the jewish community center from grade 7 trying to lever it up my last year in college. I think $ is a product of work for which discovering that one doesn't have the emotional capacity to do could be costly in terms of time value. I wasn't blessed with having a mentor when I started but it would have saved me a lot of time and efforts if I had read Education of a Speculator many years earlier. I think trying it yourself with self capital is good start.
anonymous writes:
Take up some sports. It teaches you how to lose regularly and hopefully with grace and dignity. I suppose chess does that, but the physicality of sports, and trading, makes it helpful.
The Idea That Has the World in Its Grip on Steroids or Crack Cocaine, from Jeff Watson.
A graduate of Evergreen, the school that treated Eric Weinstein’s brother Brett so badly, has set up a Feminist Business School. Instead of profit seeking, students are taught to “adopt more feminine traits such as gratitude, intimacy, and connecting with nature.” An article further describes this folly as “shunning the profit seeking motive of traditional commerce.”
One postulates that their graduates will not be recruited very heavily by the Fortune 500 companies. They cobbled together an addled brain mission statement that includes:
“We endeavor to topple the patriarchy, internally and externally. We see business as a site of personal power, radical creativity, and meaningful social change. We know that we can survive and thrive in business without compromising our values. We believe work can be fun. We hold fast to our declaration that……..
A BUSINESS CAN BE A MODEL FOR A NEW SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC ORDER.”
Here are two delightful testimonials from their website and course description.
This was a life changing experience. I learned so much about the economy, business, feminism. But most importantly, I learned about myself. If you feel out of place in the capitalist economy, you’ll likely feel at home here. — Tina C Jenn.
[the school] helps us gather tools OUTSIDE the patriarchy, so we can tear it down with some efficacy. These tools are already within us, they are us. We have been so disembodied that we have picked up the tools of the patriarchy to survive, this is about rediscovering our resilience, our natural resources, ourselves; and in doing so, we find the strength to create a new way of being in the world and in business. — Caitlin M Maybe.
The mere existence of a “school” like this is part of the downside of legalizing weed.
Sumo, from Jim Sogi.
I am in Hokkaido, Japan, skiing. There is a Sumo Championship going on. It's interesting to watch the wrestlers. 77% of the bouts are won on the initial charge when one of the sumotori is pushed out of the ring or to the ground. In each bout there is a tipping point at which one of the sumo fighters gets the other off balance and wins the fight after gaining the advantage.
In markets there is a tipping point when the momentum or balance shifts. It's also interesting to identify that tipping point when it happens. It's been a bull market for years now. I wonder when and where the tipping point will be.
In sumo TV coverage there are always replays so one can see if you identified the tipping point in real time.
Trees and Hurricanes, from Larry Williams.
I certainly do recognize that trees can only grow so tall, also the base is much larger than the top while the root structure is equal to the width of the branches above ground and most trees.
So there is a lesson there… all things end.
Just like hurricanes… After living through two of them here I understand them a little better. The take away points are that they are predictable in a general sense but exactly where there will land no one seems to know.
All the hotshot weather forecast systems did give us ample warning to prepare but nobody got it right as to exactly where they demolished these islands.
Even at that several friends had their homes totally destroyed while there neighbor's house, just a few yards away, was not touched. As they say in real estate: location, location, location.
What my hernia doctor said was, "hurricanes are great for my business" and that explains some of my lack of recent posts. Not only that (the recovery has gone quite well, everything is fine) but I also have have been very confused by the stock market.
I know we are in a bull market and prices will go higher but I did not participate in the last part of the rally. That frustrates me.
Now however another buy point is being set up hopefully I'll figure that one out. I think we have seen the top of the trees for a while but there is a base in here for much more growth.
It ain't over yet no fat ladies have sung.
Happy trails to all.
An Interesting Question Arises, from Victor Niederhoffer.
An interesting question arises now. The market has declined 115 points in last 5 days. That's incredibly bullish up 2.5% next two days, but on the Fridays it happened one of them was down 101 points the next days on 8/21/2015. How to combine?
Alston Mabry writes:
Here is a take, using the SPY daily data, calculating the 5-day move into the close as a %, and then the 2-day forward move, and then sorting all the days by 5-day moves and getting means for the deciles.
Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble, from Bill Rafter.
Markets can experience contagion. I remember from trading futures (nee commodities) that a crash in one market tended to bleed through to others. We would always remember it as though someone who had a great position in beans would sell it out to meet a margin call in silver that should have been dumped. That is, cutting your profits to let your losses run.
In that vein I wonder how much the recent hit in Bitcoin contributed to the equities decline.
Jim Lackey comments:
Above 200 day MA in February, from Kora Reddy.
For all the 200dMA lovers:
Big Brother is Watching You, from anonymous.
A scary advance of the state surveillance apparatus. Don't let this fool you, these cameras are a printing press of revenue. Don't drive in this town if you ever even jaywalked, they will use anything as a pretext to detain you and search you and your car. There is a bright side, just think how safe you will be.
Healthy Protectionism, from Stefan Jovanovich.
My 1-syllable half-namesake ("Stef") has offered up this phrase as part of his latest Gini-inspired solution to the nation and the world's problems. If only.
Tariffs, like all other taxes, are fundamentally unhealthy. John Locke would not have made such a fuss about the social contract if the idea of a deal were not the necessary Big Lie on which the revenue depends. Taxes are the only payment transactions that are not contracts; they are always and everywhere legalized extortions.
The W, M & F cabal knew this when they wrote the Constitution and accepted the Bill of Rights as part of the necessary whip count to get the votes of the amateur Virginia bar. They also knew that relying on the States to pay the Army and Navy would never work. The local extortionists - the State governments and their voters' interests - would always keep the money at home, even when it was used to pay the militia and reward privateers. Tariffs were the only form of taxation that could be made national precisely because they were the one tax that foreigners could be made to pay without instituting the very oppressions that had led to the Revolution in the first place.
What W, M & F and their wisest successor - the 2-term drunken butcher - could not have imagined is an America with an IRS and compulsory indoctrination camps. Such a poverty of liberty was simply beyond their conception.
I Noted, from Victor Niederhoffer.
I noted that the 2 day S&P has been up 20 days in a row and this is a record. Whether it is predictive is another question. Such forays into immunity or increased hazards are interesting to keep in mind.
Article of the Day, from Larry Williams.
If Soros says yes, then the world should bet no.
The takeaway? Soros doesn't exactly have a recent history of picking political winners.
He lost $27 million trying to defeat Bush.
He lost $25 million trying to help Clinton and her fellow Dems win in 2016.
And now he's predicting Trump will soon be tossed from office — maybe even sooner than 2020, which is an offhand jab at impeachment?
Bloomberg notes: "Soros's predictions at last year's conference in Davos were also gloomy and bearish on Trump, and have yet to pan out. He said that the stock market rally would soon come to an end. Since then, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has rallied almost 30 percent."
Another Soros prediction, another Soros error. The phrase grain of salt is what comes to mind. It's almost to the point of becoming this: If Soros says yes, then the world should bet no. If Soros goes right, then the world should go left. If Soros predicts a rise of Democrats in 2018 — then conservatives in America might as well start congratulating their Republican Party friends for the upcoming wins right now.
Cheryl Chumley can be reached at cchumley@washingtontimes or on Twitter, @ckchumley.
anonymous writes:
A few years ago there were some brain scans done at "Oxbridge" of people who self-identified as either liberal or conservative. The scans showed the respective organs were wired differently. While we all inherently know which are wired correctly and which not, the point is that the wiring is all-encompassing.
Soros is wired a certain way and no amount of logic or conversation will change his mind. His problem (and ours because he has money to proselytize) is that he is betting his own wishes. That is tantamount to betting on a sports event based on who you like or (in my wife's case) their uniforms.
Dylan Distasio writes:
He should form a new fund with Dennis Gartman, and the Greedometer guy.
That would make for quite the Third triumvirate.
Stef Estebiza writes:
Soros was wrong but he is not wrong in how he thinks. In a normal situation everything would have already exploded, but as long as you can inject money into the system indefinitely with a trillion stroke at a time, not even Buffett's rule makes sense: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
Here, the son of a man who sold his business to an US multinational for $ 225 million told me clearly that the world…is gone.
Larry Williams writes:
I feel for you. Soros' socialist/elitist thinking is wrong for us poor working stiffs. The world is not gone. I would bet that it never will be. The trend of human progress is up, always has been and will be. Make no mistake about that.
We are no longer on the gold system so it's a brave new world and you have to trade/treat it that way.
I rejoiced the day I had that realization.
A Measure of Exuberance, from Bill Rafter.
As an observer/researcher I see that lately there has been an increase in unhedged options transactions. I believe the language would go something like, "Why hedge, the outcome is not in doubt."
I will see if I can put together a graphic over the weekend.
P. S. one bugaboo potentially is North Korea immediately after the Olympics.
I Put a Spell On You, from anonymous.
Not sure how to count it, but it sure seems that the remarkable magnitude of weekly gains in SPX are correlated with the number of slanderous articles about Trump in the gossip media (BBG, NYT, CNN).
One fears the day they cut him 1mm of slack, in their pink hats.
My Ayn Rand and Revolutionary New York Walking Tours, from Fred Cookinham.
I have just posted my 2018 walking tour schedule on my website indepthwalkingtours.
Also, I am nearing completion of a memoir called BOND, SPOCK, GALT AND ME: GROWING UP NERD IN THE SIXTIES. Should be fun to read for those who remember those times.
See you on the streets!
Quote of the Day, from Larry Williams.
Gross was grossly wrong. And with stocks, as long as they are pricing in President Donald Trump's goal of 3 percent economic growth, investors should reduce their holdings, he added. "It becomes a question of reducing risk and reducing return expectations as opposed to anything else." In Gross' latest investment outlook he warned that a global slowdown in productivity as a result of the financial crisis will make it impossible for Trump to get economic growth back above 3 percent and will reveal financial markets are overvalued.
Concave Up // Concave Down, from Kim Zussman.
Women often do their eyebrows in a pattern I find somewhat provocative. Notwithstanding calculus, I recall that eye signals are very significant, and it follows that eye make-up is there for a reason.
And you are the reason.
Accentuated lashes are meant to accentuate pupillary coyness. Or deadly serious entrainment.
I was reminded of this looking at a video today of Russian lawyer Veselnitskaya's interview. She's not looking to exonerate Trump's team. Or brandishing Putin's position. She's looking for an oligarch.
Stefanie Harvey comments:
Eyebrows–and eye makeup–go through style cycles.
Right now the emphasis is on huge brows (for us old folks, think Brook Shields). Check out Benefit cosmetics Instagram feed.
This is an emphasis on youth. Many women lose brow thickness with menopause (especially the outer edges near the side of the face.)
I assume much of it is about generation Z now getting buying power. How do specs adjust for that? Pensamentos?
When I attended CES I was struck by how much of AI/machine learning is already adopted by "smart retail."
If people are interested I can write a short summary of the smart retail seminar.
20 Longest Stretches of DJIA Without 5% Corrections, from anonymous.
# rank by longest stretch since 1900.
Dow Jones & 200 Week Moving Average, from Cagdas Tuna.
Peter Pinkhasov replies:
Rocky Asked About Consensus Misunderstanding, from Orson Terrill.
I would note that the short, intermediate, and long-term consensus for inflation are all 2.0% +/- 0.5% — as found in the TIPS breakeven market — and this range has been in place for much of the past decade.
One of the larger risks is the growing interest, and calls for, a higher inflation rate (long time developing). They want roughly 4% (implicitly emanating through price level targets), the market thinks 2% inflation is some sort of magical target (it's not, so to that extent they are exposed to being blindsided) - Maybe 3% - 3.5% will be something that can be done.
Follow John Williams et al at the Fed. They have been, and may continue to be, influencing the future of monetary policy. If you're a bond trader, a decision tree may be useful: One branch is that the monetarists' ideas belonging to Williams et al, and what a shift inflation expectations means (the methods are open?), and other branch is that the current regime continues to "win" (quotes for it is apparent that the forces of technology, and some demographics, are deflationary and have wrestled control of inflation from the Fed).
Documentary Recommendation, from Alston Mabry.
This was an excellent documentary on Teddy Roosevelt in the amazon in 1914.
Into the Amazon tells the remarkable story of the journey taken by President Theodore Roosevelt and legendary Brazilian explorer Cândido Rondon into the heart of the South American rainforest to chart an unexplored tributary of the Amazon. Two of the most celebrated men from their respective nations, Roosevelt and Rondon set out with twenty other adventurers in 1914. Over eight eventful weeks in one of the most remote places on earth, the ill-equipped expedition navigated deadly rapids in crude dugout canoes. Hunger and exhaustion were compounded by the rainforest's unforgiving topography, which forced the men to carry heavy canoes long distances. What was anticipated to be a relatively tranquil journey turned out to be a brutal test of courage and character. Before it was all over, one member of the expedition had drowned and another had committed murder. Roosevelt would badly injure his leg and beg to be left behind to die. More than a dramatic adventure story, Into the Amazon shines a light on two of the western hemisphere's most formidable men, and the culture and politics of their two formidable nations.
Nobody Asked Me, But…from Victor Niederhoffer.
1. The changes in the lead in the last minutes in the Vikings Saints game as well as the Knicks game prompts one to see if there is an inordinate tendency in markets. I find that in the last 45 minutes of play the S&P futures change from minus to plus, 10% of the time and from plus to minus 7% of the time. Such changes seem random and consistent with previous periods.
2. I find it bracing and comforting to read old economic books. In reading Economic History Vol 2 from 1930 edited by Keynes I come across such articles as "The Finances of Tyrant Governments in Ancient Greece", "The Profits of the Guinea Trade", "The Housing of the Rural Population in the 18th Century", "Mason's Wages in Medieval England", "An Early Victorian Business Forecaster in the Woollen Industry".. all in all, the articles are more interesting to me and informative than the current articles in the major economic journals.
3. It is interesting that the upside down man seems to have the worst record of forecasting of the stock market ever, and now he is forecasting the bond market with the same techniques and I predict he will have a comparable record of accuracy in the fixed income markets since he uses trend lines and moving averages.
4. The book, The Perfect Bet by Adam Kucharski is amazingly interesting and useful. It contains a historical and analytical review of how Roulette, Lottery, poker, stock market and Horse Racing have used mathematical, physical and statistical methods to beat the house edge. Particularly interesting to me was the discussion of Roulette where Poincarre, Pearson, and Fisher are cited as important figures in the quest for winning.
5. It is always difficult for me to trade after holidays as I never never know whether the moves on the corresponding days were 4 or 5 days apart, and the stock markets all seem to have a positive bias.
6. I find the book Survival Analysis with Long Term Survivors by Maller and Zhou very helpful for studying market moves that are immune to normal failures.
7. The biography of George Washington by Ron Chernow which I listened to on compact disk leads you to the thought that Washington was a great man with tremendous military, political, financial and personal skills. We were lucky to have him as the leader of the Revolutionary War and the first president. There appear to be no liberal biases in the book as appear in other Chernow works except that there is am emphasis on Slavery and the Federalist case championed by Hamilton is lionized.
8. The stock market has had one of the biggest rises in the first two weeks in history and based on past years, it is due for a pull back.
9. When my 7 kids all asked me about forming internet businesses in 1999 I figured the bubble was about to bust. Now they are asking about forming crypto currency businesses and my 11 year old son has a job associated with mining where he makes more per hours than most people I know.
10. All the markets are influenced by the rise in the stock market. Crude, gold, cotton, the Euro, all the Asian Markets are at all time highs. When will the grains and coffee follow?
Russ Sears adds:
Regarding point 2, that is one of the reasons I value this site a key to my success. One hypothesis I have is that as printing costs have become cheaper, the value of the ideas exposed has not only become cheaper, but have turned negative. Now the cost is not in the printing, but in getting recognized. Hence value only exists for non-mainstream writers. But how to turn this hypothesis into more testable profitable idea?
I Sometimes Wonder, from Victor Niederhoffer.
I sometimes wonder how big agrarian reformer traders like palindrome and drunk and upside down man and his twin can make money retrospectively outside of service loopholes and I think a large part of it is creating a buzz concerning their already held positions and another part of it is they made money in the past but haven't made as much as the market in the last x years? O que você acha?
anonymous writes:
Some time ago I corresponded with professor Malkiel about the WSJ dart-throwing contest. I pointed out that the pros had (slightly) beaten the darts. Dr Malkiel's response was that this was explained by the announcement effect: People reading the picks of experts (vs darts) bought the expert's picks at the next open - believing the experts were in fact experts. This publicity added to the the expert's returns. And controlling for this, there was no difference - like the thousand monkeys composition problem.
As far as upside down people and sages, in a world of lawyers surely it is malpractice not to advertise positively one's positions.
Peter Ringel writes:
Two days ago the center-most headline on drudge was:
"CHINA MAY HALT PURCHASES OF US TREASURIES –Markets Rattled" (It linked to articles on Bloomberg and cnbc.)
An emotional argument and IMHO not the real driver of the current leg down in bonds. Bonds made some sort of short-term low.
I thought: "Wyckoff Lives", because it seems to be Wyckoff-style news-manipulation.
Today, I read the first paper on Kora's list: Front Page News: The Effect of News Consumption on Financial Markets by A. Fedyk.
and I think: "Wyckoff Lives!"
- The paper gives empiric to the fact, that front-page news on BBerg create higher volume and stronger drift in the minutes after the news-release – than non-front page news "of equal importance".
- The paper defines three categories of news PI("primary important"), SI_1("secondary important" on front page) and SI_2("secondary important" NOT on front page)
- The paper discusses the relation of SI_1 and SI_2.
- The paper does not research the impact of PI-news - probably because we don't know what the control group (of news) would be .
I think it is an easy step to conclude that this behavior is gamed. Por exemplo. if someone wants to exit a position, he will attempt to place news on BBerg's front-page, create a buzz and exit into that "artificial" volume.
The above describes a potential manipulation to exit a position and a resulting reversal (intraday).
Now I wonder if there are already papers that research news-buzz impact longer-term and for directional moves.
To research this I think a major problem is how to categorize and qualify the news and what would be the control group? Por exemplo. for the "story stock Tesla" (the one with the buzz), what would be the "non-story Tesla"?
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
The question about the last year's stock market rise is whether the gains are to be measured in dollars or Euros. In dollars it has been a big deal; in Euros it was an 8% net return, less than half what could have been earned without the stock market risk by simply being short the Almighty dollar and long the Euro.
I agree FX impact & risk is often overlooked by the (global) public. We just had it in Poland, where a lot of private real estate debt was in USD. Then people were in trouble, because of the strong USD. The polish Gov ended up forcing the creditor to convert to zloties (the polish currency).
People Have Been at This for a While, from Stefan Jovanovich.
The Oriental Institute sponsored a dual address by an Egyptian and Hittite scholar about the first recorded battle in history–Kadesh.
I found it fascinating.
anonymous writes:
I find the Hittites fascinating myself. They were very innovative. I think we still don't know how they got water into their mountain capital.
If I remember it correctly, for this battle they also had the innovation of better wagons. They moved the axis and were able to place more fighters in one wagon. The Egyptians had only two (?) per wagon.
Some months back I argued here that the military is a driver of innovation. I was in part thinking that because of the Hittites.
An Excellent (if Frustrating) EconTalk, from Alston Mabry.
Dick Carpenter of the Institute for Justice and author of Bottlenecker s talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his book–a look at how occupational licensing and other regulations protect existing job holders from competition.
A Convenient Table, from anonymous.
The UN provides a convenient table that ranks countries by you-know-what. Perhaps this was in the President's briefing book.
Observation on Cryptos, from Jeff Watson.
I just got back from shopping at Publix for our dinner. While going through the checkout line, I overheard two of the baggers talking about cryptocurrencies. One kid was giving market tips and advice to the other. An exact comment from the young tout: "buy Ripple today, it will never ever go down." Is there a school where they teach people to be tipsters?
Anatoly Veltman writes:
Funnier yet: Ether did absolutely nothing the entire summer and fall while Bitcoin went bunkers. This winter, Bitcoin actually came down, while Ether is absolutely ballistic!
Andy Aiken writes:
Has it occurred to you that there are fundamental reasons for these price movements? If you simply observed the movement of people as units or particles in the Concourse of Grand Central Terminal, it would be baffling.
But if you understand that these particles are individual people, each with a home and a workplace, each with a will and an intent, then the movement makes sense.
The intentions aren't incidental to the movement.
James Lackey writes:
Your fantastic quote might be true for all public markets. That is all I see when I want to move. Path of least resistance ideal.
anonymous writes:
I agree with Lack on Andy's excellent observation. Is it true or useful to say that:
a) we often don't know the distribution generating price signals.
b) better to go with empirical or nonparametric distributions when possible, as opposed to formula driven?
c) is there anything to simplified agent-based modeling?
Many Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer.
Many markets are in a parabolic upward move with new highs and current prices well above the 20 day average, i. e they're trending… is it bullish or bearish and what is the affect on other markets that have not gone up big?
anonymous writes:
The move has been underway for several weeks, most recently with CL edging above 60 and GC breaking above 1308. In the midst of the NYC blizzard, the markets smell the long-forgotten florid boughs of the K-spring.
The rallies of the past decade were driven by geopolitical tensions, or fears of debt default in Europe. But the economic backdrop is qualitatively different now.
The question is whether the Fed can get ahead of it, or not, and it ends in a crack-up boom. Or, is it even a sustainable rally? It's difficult to get too confident with softs not joining in the fun.
The Genius of Corvids, from Pitt T. Maner III.
A great article about a fascinating group of intelligent birds.
Bernd Heinrich has written several books about them.
Yearly All Time Highs, from Kim Zussman.
I checked SP500 weekly closes for new all time highs per year, back to 1951. 2017 was second highest total weekly ATHs in the series (also see attached plot):
And the outlook? Sorting years with at least 20 new weekly ATHs, here is comparison of mean returns for years following these years - along with mean returns for all years:
One-Sample T: nxt yr, all yr.
Test of mu = 0 vs not = 0.
Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI T P.
nxt yr 7 0.111 0.137 0.051 (-0.015, 0.237) 2.14 0.076.
all yr 65 0.085 0.162 0.020 ( 0.045, 0.125) 4.24 0.000.
so the return is +11% vs +8.5% for all years. No bearishness here.
The Second World Wars, from Alston Mabry.
Best 2017 Books of Disturbing Yet Necessary History.
THE SECOND WORLD WARS: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won.
by Victor Davis Hanson.
Not just another account of World War II, but a thoughtful overview of the battles that were "emblematic of the larger themes of how the respective belligerents made wise and foolish choices about why, how, and where to fight the war."
According to veteran military historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Hanson (The Savior Generals: How Five Great Commanders Saved Wars that Were Lost—From Ancient Greece to Iraq, 2013, etc.), the war began during the 1930s as a series of fairly straightforward border conflicts—e. g., Germany versus its neighbors, Japan versus China. Suddenly, in 1941, as the result of poor decisions around the world, it exploded into a global conflict that the so-far-victorious Axis Powers were guaranteed to lose. Beginning with its cause, Hanson dismisses the time-honored denunciation of the Treaty of Versailles, which was softer than the peace Germany imposed on France in 1871 or the Soviet Union in 1918. It was the humiliation that nagged. Neither Germany nor Japan was endangered or impoverished; both believed that their honor had been slighted and that their racially superior citizens deserved better than their decadent neighbors. "The irrational proved just as much a catalyst for war as the desire to gain materially at someone else's expense," writes the author. Four long chapters on weapons deliver a few jolts. Everyone knows that infantry wins wars, but Hanson maintains that strategic bombing probably persuaded Japan to surrender. High-tech weapons—the B-29, proximity fuse, and atomic bomb—unquestionably helped the Allies. Vaunted German technology (rockets, jet planes, guided missiles) merely wasted money. Unique in its 50 million to 80 million deaths—the great majority of which were civilians and included far more Allied than Axis soldiers—and worldwide extent, WWII broke no rules. Hyperaggression and ruthlessness win battles; resources and stubbornness carry the day.
An ingenious, always provocative analysis of history's most lethal war.
Alex Castaldo adds:
The author gives an overview of his book in two interviews:
The State of Cryptocurrency Reportage, from Andy Aiken.
Boris writes:
Still acting as directional magnet for all other cryptos, at least for the larger ones - Only Ripple not following.
Heck of a run for Ripple (XRP) in the last 24 hours - now the third largest (71B) crypto by market-cap. Was second largest for couple of hours. Going from 1.16 (yesterday noon) to currently 1.67 USD - Market chatter of becoming the winner of 2018. Great pattern behavior to capitalize on. Fique ligado.
anonymous writes:
I would note that XRP is not a cryptocurrency, and is the opposite of the vision of a trustless, decentralized peer-to-peer transaction network. The XRP token itself has little utility in the Ripple network, and is just a demo token for Ripple, Inc.'s Hyperledger tech. Even if banks choose to use XRP to defray costs of using the network, the amount of XRP required is trivial. Ripple leadership has said that it would amount to about USD 10 worth of XRP for an institution's entire year of network fees. The futile attempts to explain that to XRP "investors" could merit a scholarly article by the scholarly disciples of Leon Festinger. The Ripple tech does have value, and the best way to play it (i. e. lowest risk:reward ratio) is through equity investment in Ripple. Ripple, Inc. holds 65% of the outstanding Ripple tokens, and starting in January will unlock these tokens, distributing them on exchanges.
Of course, the pumps in XRP are astounding due to new dumb money that regards a USD 1.70 token as "cheap" (there are 100B XRP tokens total) compared to ETH at 750 (95M coins) or BTC at 14500 (16M coins). Because not driven by changes in fundamentals, the dumps are dramatic too.
Speculative profits are profits, and making money from the oblivious greed of others is just as good as any other profit; no question.
Andy Aiken writes:
Life isn't like the golden days, when there was one phone company, the top marginal tax rate was 91%, stock brokerage commissions were hundreds of dollars per trade, and a heart attack or aneurysm had 95% mortality. Remember the placid days of yore, when people worked 6 days a week, 10 hours a day, and nonetheless spent 70% of disposable income on shelter and food? Those were good times, much better than letting people have money to fritter away on ringtones and vacation homes. When times were still good, people didn't die of fancy illnesses like Parkinsonism or Alzheimer's, they died of proper diseases like cholera and tuberculosis! Or they consumed a bit too much of the botulinum toxin that was omnipresent in the food supply. Sure, a few slipped through and died of things like ALS, but they were exceptions.
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015, from Alston Mabry.
Here is what I learned from the paper itself:
1. Risky assets such as equities and residential real estate average about 7% gains per year in real terms. Housing outperformed equity before WWII, vice versa after WWII. In any case it is a puzzle that housing returns are less volatile but about at the same level as equity returns over a broader time span.
2. Equity and housing gains have a relatively low covariance. Buy both!
3. Equity returns across countries have become increasingly correlated, housing returns not.
4. The return on real safe assets is much more volatile than you might think.
5. The equity premium is volatile too.
6. The authors find support for Piketty's r > g, except near periods of war. Furthermore, the gap between r and g does not seem to be correlated with the growth rate of the economy.
I found this to be one of the best and most interesting papers of the year.
The NBER version says you can have it for free if you live in a "developing" country or are an establishment drone of various types, but in **big red letters** says that I can't have it, so here is the working paper version.
Federal Reserve Bank Of San Francisco Working Paper Series.
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015 "scar Jordà Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, University of California, Davis et al.
December 2017 Working Paper 2017-25.
This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century. What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run? Which particular assets have the highest long-run returns? We answer these questions on the basis of a new and comprehensive dataset for all major asset classes, including—for the first time—total returns to the largest, but oft ignored, component of household wealth, housing. The annual data on total returns for equity, housing, bonds, and bills cover 16 advanced economies from 1870 to 2015, and our new evidence reveals many new insights and puzzles.
Luigi Albertini, Harold Macmillan, from Stefan Jovanovich.
Today is the anniversary of their deaths, Albertini in 1941 and Macmillan in 1986.
Between them they explain everything that needs to be known about The Great War. Albertini's work– the Origins of the War of 1914 – is the best single work of history I have ever read. Macmillan's experience as a young man says it all.
From the Telegraph: "In his year at Balliol, 28 students went to the Western Front. Only Macmillan and one other came back."
A General Observation, from Alston Mabry.
A general observation: Reading various market analyses, it seems the modal form now is this:
(1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE.
(2) Therefore, the market is going to crash.
(1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE.
(2) Therefore, it's reasonable to expect below-average returns going forward for some time period.
We seem to be very "crash sensitive".
Bitcoin, from Anand.
The more I read about this market the more Bitcoin and its offshoots look like Railroad stocks in the late 1800s. Behind the shadows there are ‘whales’ who own large blocks with the credulous public chasing the market higher. Every time there is a mini panic these guys come in and support the market like a modern version of Jay Gould. For the time being they are seen as kind benefactors with some kind of wispy greater goals in mind (to save the market/solve global poverty/give humanity its freedom etc). I reckon they are pushing the market up together to liquidate their holdings on the gullible public. A couple of days ago LiteCoin founder said he’d liquidated his whole holdings as he didn’t want a conflict of interest. When it all crashes and the publics savings are wiped out there will be wailing and hand wringing but who are they going to complain to? After all, bitcoin buyers think the establishment is out to get them which is what drew them to go ‘off piste’ in the first place!
I don’t think many people are ‘trading’ bitcoin. We know the stress trading financial markets with a fraction of the volatility. Anyone who tries to trade these tokens is going to have a heart attack within a month. They are a mixture of ‘real money’ (money launderers/criminals gangs and rogue states like N Korea doing off the system transactions) and ‘long only investors’ most of whom are investment neophytes. The latter are the second coming of the silver brigade we saw a few years ago. In fact I think the Silver tin hat lunatics have migrated to Bitcoin and other tokens and picked up other followers along the way. Check the Silver price vs. Bitcoin movement (people have mentioned Gold but I think Silver is the one which is inversely correlated although I need to test it).
Andy Aiken writes:
The volatility is a profound boon to a trader, not inherently a nerve-wracking experience. It’s unclear what you think a trader actually does.
The concentration of ownership of BTC is not dissimilar to present-day ownership of US stocks or real estate.
As for the smear of an inherent criminality, this has been debunked here numerous times. It’s almost always the final argument of those who would prefer that humanity have no economic freedom at all.
Research Query, from Victor Niederhoffer.
To what extent are the performance of the companies with the highest market values forecasting the future performance of the market? This was a 1930 hypothesis of Edgar Lawrence Smith on common stocks as long-term investments.
Gunsmoke: A Christmas Story, from Victor Niederhoffer.
Here's a story I like almost as much as Stubby Pringle.
Stubby Pringle’s Christmas, from Victor Niederhoffer and Dailyspeculations.
This is one of my favorite stories. I hope you enjoy it, and I wish you a Merry Christmas. & mdash; Victor Niederhoffer.
High on the mountainside by the little line cabin in the crisp clean dusk of evening Stubby Pringle swings into saddle. He has shape of bear in the dimness, bundled thick against cold. Double stocks crowd scarred boots. Leather chaps with hair out cover patched corduroy pants. Fleece-lined jacket with wear of winters on it bulges body and heavy gloves blunt fingers. Two gay red bandannas folded together fatten throat under chin. Battered hat is pulled down to sit on ears and in side pocket of jacket are rabbit-skin earmuffs he can put to use if he needs them.
Stubby Pringle swings up into saddle. He looks out and down over worlds of snow and ice and tree and rock. He spreads arms wide and they embrace whole ranges of hills. He stretches tall and hat brushes stars in sky. He is Stubby Pringle, cowhand of the Triple X, and this is his night to howl. He is Stubby Pringle, son of the wild jackass, and he is heading for the Christmas dance at the schoolhouse in the valley.
[For the entire text of the story, please follow this link ].
Bacon’s Book Free Download and Happy Holidays, from Jeff Watson.
For all the new members of this site and for anyone who never got a copy the first time around, here's a copy of Bacon's book, "Secrets of Professional Turf Betting". The Chair and I both agree that this is one of the best books out there about markets. Since it's out of print, it goes for around $100 on Amazon or eBay, so look at this as a nice little Christmas lagniappe. Happy holidays to y'all and may the next year have all your trades winners, and may GS be on the other side of all your trades.
A Quick Read on Autonomous Vehicles, from Stefanie Harvey.
"The automakers and high-tech companies spending billions of dollars on developing self-driving cars and trucks tout the idea that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will help create a safer, cleaner, and more mobile society. Politicians aren't far behind in their enthusiasm for the new technology. "This is probably the biggest thing to hit the auto industry since the first car came off the assembly line," Senator Gary Peters (D–MI) told a cheering audience of researchers and executives at a recent computing conference in Washington, D. C. "It will not only completely revolutionize the way we get around, but [AVs] also have the potential to save hundreds of thousands of lives each year."
Such predictions, however, turn out to be based on surprisingly little research. While developers amass data on the sensors and algorithms that allow cars to drive themselves, research on the social, economic, and environmental effects of AVs is sparse. Truly autonomous driving is still decades away, according to most transportation experts. And because it's hard to study something that doesn't yet exist, the void has been filled by speculation—and starkly contrasting visions of the future. "The current conversation … falls into what I call the utopian and dystopian views," says Susan Shaheen, co-director of the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of California (UC), Berkeley."
Best of 2017 Podcasts and Audiobooks, from Alston Mabry.
2017 Best Audio Books from digital audiophile magazine.
A General Observation, from Alston Mabry.
A general observation: Reading various market analyses, it seems the modal form now is this:
(1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE.
(2) Therefore, the market is going to crash.
(1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE.
(2) Therefore, it's reasonable to expect below-average returns going forward for some time period.
We seem to be very "crash sensitive".
BTC Questions, from Jeff Watson.
Please excuse my ignorance.
Grain traders know how many cents a certain size order can move the market, and bond traders know the effects of big orders. For those trading Bitcoin, how much will the cash market move on an exchange if one is selling 1 coin, 50 coins, 100 coins, 1000 coins? Is the market thin, how liquid? Is the b/a spread narrow in the futures? Does the b/a spread vary during different times a day? Are any retail business allowed to go short yet? How many BTC's are for sale (real orders) at any given time? What constitutes a "Big order" in both cash and futures BTC? What time of day offers the most liquidity? Obrigado.
Another Book for the Stack, from Alston Mabry.
Brink Lindsey of the Niskanen Center and Steven Teles of the Niskanen Center and Johns Hopkins University talk with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about their book, The Captured Economy .
Lindsey and Teles argue that inequality has been worsened by special interests who steer policy to benefit themselves.
They also argue that the influence of the politically powerful has lowered the overall growth of the American economy.
The Arthur and Elaine Niederhoffer Bench, from Victor Niederhoffer.
Vic Niederhoffer and Bill McCarthy at the Arthur and Elaine Niederhoffer bench at the Bronx Botanical Gardens. Bill was head of undercover police and bomb squad and student of Artie, authored Vice Cop, the best true life crime novel. Bill and Vic are equally immobile now.
The Lobotomization of American Students Education, from Stef Estebiza.
Stefanie Harvey writes:
In fairness #20 looks interesting. Very few young people have much experience with the Judeo-Christian texts and their influence on Western culture.
The titles are pithy to attract enrollment yet I think there are likely several good courses listed.
I am currently designing a course on wearable (skin) sensors for health monitoring and will choose the course title wisely.
What Can We Learn From Expert Gamblers, from Jeff Watson.
Here's a link to a Ted talk titled, "What Can We Learn From Expert Gamblers? & quot; He discusses the difference between expert, casual, and problem gamblers. He discusses the risk intelligence that all successful gamblers (and specs) have. The speaker then directs you to his website where there is a risk intelligence test that is very illuminating, and very fun to take. The test consists of 50 statements and one gives a percentage that the statement is true. Please don't game the test by answering 50% on everything.
This website does offer another, more "accurate" risk intelligence test for a fee.
Tulips Can Kill You: a Family Story, from Jeff Watson.
There has been much comparison between the BTC rally and the tulip bulb bubble back in the 1630's. Zero Edge has proclaimed the BTC "bubble" as the biggest bubble in history. Whether it is or not, none of that matters to me. What does matter is all the mention of tulips and the effect they had contributing to my family's considerable folklore.
Back in the late 1960's. my great aunt became rather batty, as most women on that side do. Since she was well off, people referred to her as an eccentric, rather than hanging the crazy moniker poor people would get. One day, my great uncle(by marriage) dug up a bunch of tulip bulbs and put them in their pantry's onion storage box. Apparently, he never told my aunt that he put them in the box. For the record, my aunt was arguably the worst cook in Illinois and it's lucky they never had kids as she would have probably poisoned them. My mom and dad jokingly called her refrigerator the ptomaine box and we were instructed as kids to always politely refuse her offers of food.
One day she was making him dinner and mistakenly used the tulip bulbs from the pantry instead of onions and shallots. That night, he ate the dish, got stomach cramps later in the evening, then dropped dead the next day. She said she didn't have any dinner because she wasn't feeling well. Because he was in his 80's, had chronic medical issues, and was an old man, no autopsy was ever performed, so we'll never know the exact truth of what killed him.
At any family gathering, we still like to joke that my great aunt got away with murder. It gets a lot of laughs, 50 years after the fact. Personally, I don't think she was a murderess or had any intent to murder him, as her brain was rather addled by that time. Furthermore, although tulip bulbs contain a few toxic glycosides, there are no recorded deaths from ingesting tulip bulbs. Still, it makes a great story.
Every time I hear about tulips, bubbles, onions, and shallots, I get a mental image of my great uncle eating that food and keeling over.
anonymous writes:
My mother was a child in Holland during the Hunger Winter of 1944-5; tulip bulb soup was commonly served because eating that was better than starving.
The Greatest Bubble Since Dotcom, from Mr. Boris.
Printed 715 USD or 597 EUR–close to 50% in two days. Not a bad move in my investment book.
So whats next–Do we listen to naysayers? Do we look at the yield curve? Do we look at ECB buying bonds? Do we look at FED raising rates? Do we look at sales for the local pizza store, or how much 3-D printing there is out here?
By now, one has understood, that none of the above matters at this point in-time, and may never do. No, what works is the behaviour of price action as there are (clear) enough with clues of directional moves. Buyers&Sellers are watching price points, breakouts, momentum, retracement levels, sentiment chatter and possibly overbought/oversold territories.
Depending on your time-horizon, you could buy&hold, or take off some betting chips in the very short term. The crypto train will have retracements along the way, but the fundamental question is, whether this asset is a good way of adding diversification or some portion of spice in the portfolio for the long haul. Is this the beginning of a wide spread alternative investment vehicle that will outshine the internet boom era between 95-00?
Possivelmente. For now we ride the trend until proven wrong and we don't resort to all kinds of mumbo jumbo, explanations of the past (even though good lessons can be learned) or general "I missed the move" and therefore this crypto thing is bogus. Spare the bullshit, eh. Everyone has their way/style of increasing the value of their investments, and that's the only thing that matters. You can talk, or you can act.
Market Comments from the Peanut Gallery, from Henrik Andersson.
Centralized, broken hash function, aggressive developers, highly questionable PR, rolling their own crypto. Avoid like the plague. Happy to be proven wrong.
Chris Cooper writes:
Yes, that's the FUD, as they say. It pays to investigate deeper.
Centralized — a temporary measure only until the network reaches adequate scale.
Broken hash function — supposedly on purpose, never led to any loss of coins, corrected without subsequent issue.
Aggressive developers — true…but what I care about is extremely competent developers, and they have that.
Highly questionable PR — founders don't care about PR, which means that it gets little attention.
Roll their own crypto — true, and it was good…but when they got feedback about potential issues, they changed to standard crypto. They will likely change back at some point.
You could add these negatives:
* Protocol designed for machines, not humans.
* Uncertainty in confirmation time, though it's faster than most others.
All these negatives, and still the coin is worth 12 billion USD at this writing. Por quê?
* Zero transaction fees, enabling micropayments.
To What Extent, from Victor Niederhoffer.
To what extent have the movements in bitcoin been predictive of gold the same day from the open of bitcoin and gold coterminously as well a bitcoin on gold over subsequent days. I've given up on using standard interrelations that I've taught half of the list to predict bitcoin because there is so much drift in bitcoin…everything is bullish. I feel like the jerks at Salomon who asked red dawn what the spread was in Russia when he showed them the assets were undervalued by a factor of 100. A blast from the past is that Viola the former head of the NY Merc has sold his apartment, the most expensive in NY for 100 mill.
The Future Corrupt Trump Administration, from Stefan Jovanovich.
Grant's reputation for "corruption" is based entirely on his committing two sins: (1) he insisted that the government actually keep accounts, and (2) he called the bluff of the St. Louis Germans who were furious at his being willing to allow the accounting to include a review of the excise tax accounts that had been their own private slush fund.
Trump seems to be going down that same path towards academic reputational hell. He is actually going to audit the DOD.
Vince Fulco writes:
Reminds me of that sub-plot in the movie last emperor when Pu Yi asked for an audit of the family's warehouses since he didn't trust the eunuchs who had been administrators to the family for decades (centuries?) and suddenly a day later, everything went up in flames.
Jim Lackey writes:
Mr. Stefan's point is this, Ralph. I was a rookie trading the Nazz. SOES, Daytek and my first backer now in heaven.
We had an amazing edge, in execution. There was five 25 year olds sayin, "this can't last! How do I pay the rent much less support my Austin, Lack?" Magic words… "The warehouses are full" Hugs tech bubble. Limit up every week. We make selling them only when we are certain. That was the point. You made the call. Plz. Never call the turn. We all know.
Tyler Cowen Podcast: Trade Policy, from Alston Mabry.
Tyler Cowen thinks Douglas Irwin has just released the best history of American trade policy ever written. So for this conversation Tyler went easy on Doug, asking softball questions like: Have tariffs ever driven growth? What trade exceptions should there be for national security, or cultural reasons? In an era of low tariffs, what margins matter most for trade liberalization? Do investor arbitration panels override national sovereignty? And, what's the connection between free trade and world peace?
They also discuss the revolution as America's Brexit, why NAFTA is an 'effing great' trade agreement, Jagdish Bhagwati's key influence on Doug, the protectionist bent of the Boston Tea Party, the future of the WTO, Trump, China, the Chicago School, and what's rotten in the state of New Hampshire.
Loving Vincent, from Duncan Coker.
Loving Vincent is a visually stunning movie and highly recommended. The production is a blending of animation and art as each frame has been hand-painted in the style of Van Gogh often using one of his actual works as a base. The film tells the story of the last years of his life introducing us to the characters of a small French town where he lived and painted; they include his friends, benefactors, doctors, contemporaries as well as the countryside which inspired his work. The story puzzles over the mystery surrounding his death as the narrator seeks to deliver a final letter from Vincent to his brother. It moves very slowly but this is welcome as the unfolding art is so enjoyable to watch. In his short 8 years as a painter Van Gogh produced 800 works. Though he sold but one, he never waivered from his singular devotion to his craft. This films reintroduces us to his work. It is like gazing at one of his painting for 90 minutes and really absorbing the impact. Would love to hear Marion's review.
Bitcoin Mining Guzzles Energy and Its Carbon Footprint Keeps Growing.
To the extent that Bitcoin has any fundamental value other than speculation it is as an alternative private means of transaction payment. One of its main attraction is the limited amount of bitcoins that can be created. From what I have read the validation process relies on complex computer programs that become more expensive to run over time running up more costs for electricity, etc. for those maintaining the records. Eventually the finite limit is reached when no more coins are created.
What then will be the incentive for any players to continue to run the block verification system? And even before then, if the value of bitcoins does not increase sufficiently, will it still pay so many to try to mine bitcoins. If transaction fees become necessary and if the cost of validation is not linked to the value of the transaction, will it not become uneconomical to engage in modest sized transactions? And if that is the cast would not its real purpose of another means of paying for transactions be defeated?
While the amount of bitcoins may be limited, what is to stop other players from coming up with their own systems? While there is a limit to the amount of bitcoins and newly created coins, there would appear to be no limit to the number of cyber coins that can be created, in essence creating many competing currency. What then is to prevent cyber coin inflation that reduces the purchasing power of all such coins. And if cheaper verification methods are not created would not that increase the cost to sellers of goods and services of transacting in so many different currencies whose relative values might fluctuate violently?
Might not this wild speculation turn out to be the tulip bulb bubble of the 21st century eventually?
Andy Aiken writes:
Rudy, yes, new cryptocurrencies and digital assets may be issued, but there is no reason to expect that this will weaken the value of bitcoin. Digital assets are unique and non-fungible. When the Venezuelan government hyper-inflates the bolivar, it doesn't affect the purchasing power of a dollar. In fact, it may even bolster the dollar's value, and we see a similar phenomenon in cryptocurrency. During times of relative risk aversion, the % of the total crypto market cap that bitcoin represents (referred to as bitcoin dominance %) increases.
There are different types of digital assets:
1. Platform coins.
Ethereum is an example of a platform, but there are others. Companies can issue tokens on the platform easily and use them for governance or stakeholder management. Although the most visible type of token issuance is through ICOs, there are many companies that will use them internally/privately only. The growth of usage of the platform will necessitate the use of the "gas" that powers transactions, which in the case of Ethereum is ether. Demand for ether will rise as the network grows, but in my view upside from here may be limited until some of the companies/apps based on the platform start delivering on their promises. Ether isn't a strict cryptocurrency like bitcoin, although it may be used as a currency. It is the transaction token for the Ethereum platform. The rise of this platform has led to the emergence of prominent competitors, each with a similar transaction token. Some of these are EOS, NEO, Aeternity, and Lisk. In my view, purchasing a platform token is a way to benefit as an investor from the success/growth of the platform. But this is a messier/more volatile investment due to the inherent risks.
2. Tokens used within a specific blockchain-based application.
There are specific tokens/coins that allow participation in a unique blockchain use case. For example, Augur is a decentralized prediction market launching next year. The tokens entitle the holder to a share of all transaction fees from the prediction markets, as well as voting rights to settle disputed prediction outcomes. Users of the platform can create markets at will, and operate as market maker. The blockchain basis ensures privacy/anonymity for participants while ensuring quick, accurate settlement. There are other interesting applications of the technology with an associated token, such as Golem (distributed computing), Air and Civic (identity verification), Storj and Sia (distributed storage).
Many of these business models will fail, and the associated tokens will decline to zero. Those that succeed could increase in value significantly, perhaps even surpassing the value of the associated platform token.
Bitcoin itself is the reserve currency for cryptocurrency, and I believe it will continue to play this role indefinitely. There are others that intend to play the strict role of currency, such as a. Privacy coins (DASH, Monero, Zcash). The networks for these coins use strategies to obscure sender/receiver of transactions, or blind the transactions themselves. b. Credit system coins (Maker, X8currency (not yet released), Decred). These coins attempt to build a non-debt based credit system for cryptocurrency. The business model is of critical importance here, so much DD is necessary before investing here.
Demise of Rball in S. Diego, from Bo Keely.
I was just notified by a historical foundation that there are no longer any court clubs in San Diego.
They've all been leveled or converted to doughnut shops and Crossfits.
The IRA cannot hold any tournaments in San Diego, and for the first time no player in the top 50 hails from the mecca.
There are no courts to play on.
That's a feather in my cap.
The Dark Side of the Morning, from anonymous.
The handful of SpecListers who have had investments in crypto are well past 30 (no offense intended, you don't look it).
But yes, many of the enthusiasts are millennial. Having come of age in the depths of the financial crisis, they have a keen distrust of the banking system and the political establishment that reinforces its oligopoly power and socializes its risks.
I have cut and paste the answers I got from a very good friend who really can hack the math and the digital mysteries of cryptocurrencies. He is 30.
My contribution is the choice of a sound track.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
Sum up the number of stolen bitcoins just from the 7 hacks mentioned by that article and multiply by current price. Adds up to greater than $13B.
Out of all the bitcoins ever mined, 6.6% of them were stolen from just those 7 hacks.
And that is with bitcoin basically only used by tech savvy people. Imagine how much worse it would be if bitcoin went mainstream?
This site offers a retrospective on 45 different hacks.
Bugs and a Bad Cancer, from Kim Zussman.
1 de dezembro de 2017.
David Lillienfeld writes:
There was a Nobel award in the early part of last century for the discovery of the bacterial cause of cancer. The work was subsequently found to be deficient.
anonymous writes:
If they give Nobel Prizes for common sene then my Grandfather should receive one. As a nine year old boy I was heartbroken when my Granddad told me that our black Lab Duke was sick and not going to get better. I asked him what was wrong and he told me he had cancer, a sickness where the body turns against itself with healthy tissue being taken over by the disease. "Why? What causes this?" I asked. "Well it was probably from his food (diet) or on the instructions he got from his mom and dad since he was a puppy (ie. Genes)".
So why do humans get cancer? Same reason: our diet and our genes. Why do elephants not get cancer? Going out on a limb here… their diet and their genes.
The highest rates of cancer outside of humans in higher order species are the very ones in which we human control the diet: livestock and pets. Given that dog's frequently consume the scraps of their human family's meals one would EXPECT to see a significant correlation to diet induced disease. Veterinarians note that cancer has become much more prevalent in man's best friend in the last half century and again–Captain Obvious–it has also increased discernably in man.
BTC Futures Launch Impact, from Andy Aiken.
Today, the fund that trades as GBTC is down over 25% on the day. Yet BTC itself is up 2%. I attribute the drop to the impending launch of BTC futures on the CBOE, CME, and Nasdaq. So Anatoly was right, in a way. The effect on BTC itself remains to be seen.
This fund, which is not an ETF, has traded at a premium as high as 100% over NAV, and was trading at an 80% premium yesterday. A more sophisticated investor could have invested directly in the Trust by buying shares at NAV. After a 1-year lockup, one could have a GBTC share cert issued, and sell the shares at the premium. But people were foolishly buying shares of this product, perhaps so they could have BTC exposure in a tax-advantaged account.
The Power of Groups, from Mr. Rove.
"The power of Groups is that they're where people go to have conversations about specific topics. So, in the context of conspiracist or highly partisan communities, they can become incredibly powerful echo chambers; few people join a group to start challenging the prevailing opinion, and those who do typically get kicked out."
Article of the Day, from Mr. Rove.
What seems clear is that our ability to navigate is inextricably tied not just to our ability to remember the past but also to learning, decision-making, imagining and planning for the future. And though our sense of direction often feels innate, it may develop — and perhaps be modified — in a region of the brain called the retrosplenial cortex, next to the hippocampus, which becomes active when we investigate and judge the permanence of landmarks. In 2012, Maguire and co-authors published their finding that an accurate understanding of whether a landmark is likely to stay put separates good navigators from poor ones, who are as apt to take cues from an idling delivery truck as a church steeple. The retrosplenial cortex passes our decisions about the stability of objects to the hippocampus, where their influence on way-finding intersects with other basic cognitive skills that, like memory, are as crucial to identity as to survival.
Recently, Maguire and colleagues proposed a new unified theory of the hippocampus, imagining it not as a repository for disparate memories and directions but as a constructor of scenes that incorporate both. (Try to recall a moment from your past or picture a future one without visualizing yourself in the physical space where that moment happens.) Edvard and May-Britt Moser have similarly hypothesized that our ability to time-travel mentally evolved directly from our ability to travel in the physical world, and that the mental processes that make navigation possible are also the ones that allow us to tell a story. ''In the same way that an infinite number of paths can connect the origin and endpoint of a journey,'' Edvard Moser and another co-author wrote in a 2013 paper, ''a recalled story can be told in many ways, connecting the beginning and the end through innumerable variations.''
Bubbles Not Tulips, from Stefan Jovanovich.
Andy Aiken writes:
Since bitcoin is one of these emotionally freighted subjects that permits otherwise serious investors to unironically post charts that juxtapose data from highly disparate eras, contexts, and time frames, I might as well contribute one too.
Stefan Jovanovich writes:
It is not emotional, Andy. If it were, I and others would not have complimented you, both on the List and privately, on a great call. What the professionals on this List have taught me is that price movements are themselves information, independent of the units they denominate. The difficulty with your chart is that it is not a display of prices over time. What I find paradoxical about cryptocurrencies is that their growth in popularity and transaction volumes has been accompanied by a rise in price that is independent of any increases in outputs or payouts. All other mines in history that have seen dramatic price rises in their asset values have seen even greater increases in outputs even as the output prices dropped–salt, silver, gold, coal and even diamonds all followed this pattern. The asset prices for the leaseholds for the essential commodity of the modern age–oil & gas energy–have confirmed this same pattern. Rockefeller became the wealthiest man in history by owning the distribution and production of a product whose price plummeted even as consumption soared.
Clearly, cryptocurrencies, like Tesla's newly imagined giant batteries, defy all the known rules. Congratulations on the unprecedented and profitable levitation.
Andy Aiken replies:
I didn't mean to say that your points, or the discussion on the List, were emotional. It's been a rational discussion here, although I do think dismissing bitcoin as a bubble similar to the South Seas stock bubble shows an insufficient understanding of bitcoin as well as the South Seas affair.
My "emotionally freighted" reference had performances such as this recent Joseph Stiglitz interview in mind. "We ought to just go back to what we have always had" (i. e. the state prints money at will and deliberately impoverishes the middle class over multiple generations) One of the B'Berg commentators even chips in with his pathetic misunderstanding of Marx, as if to red-bait libertarian viewers who might consider buying a few satoshi.
I was thinking as well of this chestnut from Paul Krugman, another courtier to the flexions:
When I have been in doubt about how to live or invest, doing what Krugman and Stiglitz consider evil has always been a rewarding choice.
What is unique about bitcoin is that unlike diffusion of earlier technologies, in which investors participated by investing in representations of the technology (startup companies), in the case of bitcoin and a handful of other platform cryptos, the coin is definitionally equivalent to the technology.
The dynamics driving the price are aligned with Brexit and the "surprise" election of Trump. Bitcoin is a Cassandra for our age.
The price could of course drop by 50% or 90%. As Jayson points out, it has dropped by this magnitude several times previously. It's the nature of innovation that isn't "managed" by the state.
Articles, from Victor Niederhoffer.
Articles from Goldman paint a bearish picture and they are so flawed in their analysis. This is what the CFA stuff has led to. Gresham's Law.
anonymous writes:
Does "the CFA stuff" mean the attempt to certify critical thinking and standardise which facts are important?
One of the Pleasures, from Victor Niederhoffer.
One of the pleasures of a long lived affinity group like this are the little improvements to one's life that occur not planned but arising out of a little something of friendship. 15 years ago I met Vince Fulco on the list. He was a good man and had a wonderful wife who tragically succumbed. Vince was a can do guy who always could be counted on to do the little extra that goes beyond dollar or clock.
He taught me to roll the tennis courts with a circular path rather than perpendicular among countless other things. One thing he did was to set us up on the bloomberg so that we received spot prices free for the metals rather than the costly futures. For 10 years we saved money by using spot rather than the futures. Certain adjustments had to be made since there was a 3 and a half hour difference in their closing times… but now gold trades as much as bonds, 300,000 contracts a day. And it's become viable to trade in size as is bunds rather than bonds. So we bite the bullet after 12 years and get the future prices and recall all of Fulco's contributions to our life and are not surprised at all that he is doing so well in China. We thank him and wish him well in his pursuits. He's a good man. I could write a similar story about many on this list– but it's a little lugubrious after a stroke and it takes a meaningful % of my remaining life expectancy to type a long memo these days.
Ever Since the CFA Exams, from Victor Niederhoffer.
Ever since the CFA exams I have noticed a tendency for Wall Street research to deteriorate. A Gresham's Law appears to be operating. The articles like the white shoe one I mentioned are chock full of seemingly sapient stuff that are scientifically flawed amid reference to Shiller p/e data with their 10 year averaging and data when no earnings were reported etc. They refuse to take account of interest rates and use technical analysis and charts for suggestive but random conclusions. It is sad to see this deterioration as literacy increases as predicted by Nock.
Alston Mabry writes:
I find that if I'm really serious about an individual ticker, one of the few places where I can get at least trailheads to research is the earnings conference call, not for the company's answers but more for the analyst's questions, assuming there are analysts on the call who are at least somewhat skeptical. Not that I dig into individual tickers that much anymore.
anonymous writes:
Vic's point of Gresham's Law happens everywhere, but especially in situations where there are credentials given that appear to have value. IMO the CFA society exists (as does the CMT) primarily to enhance the status of its anointed ones (for a price), and for the side benefit of providing income to the society heads.
Al is right: There is no original thinking and virtually no research. But there is a benefit to us thinking ones: If all of what passes for research is bot-written drivel, released over some time period, a case can be made for trends to exist based on the gradual release of the drivel. That would support the contention that what really drives certain markets is momentum and sentiment.
Never complain about the weaknesses of your opponents; exploit them.
Allen Gilespie adds:
In an effort to defend free thinking CFAs from the white shoe firms, I have attached and included a link to my most recent annual analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Index built on Ben Graham's method's with an added modern twist and nod to Richard Russell in a world of QE. I have also include my white paper on Bitcoin, Banking, and Bernanke in a World of Monetary Chaos from 2013. Prior year reports available to those with a Bloomberg under DIA US equity. Given that the economy now includes industrial businesses and network/software type businesses like MSFT and V I think there is a delta between book value, average ratio and earnings methods due to network value theory and excessive monetary inflation. I am calling this new valuation framework my Gold, Bitcoin, Dow Theory whereby one bitcoin plus one gold coin = one Dow share. Obviously, figuring out the key ratios is key, but in short, the theory is that gold and tangible book on the Dow should trade on a ratio. There will then be the goodwill book value which gets measure by crytpo, so in combination they will equal the value of shares in fiat. In short, there is value but that value is dependent on the value of money, assets, earnings, and interest rates. We live in a world of fiat, hard, and crypto currencies. In short, I think QE is the same as John Law effort to demonitize gold but then cryptos broke out - you can inflate values but the market will find a way to make proper measurements. I have started making all price targets in dollars, gold and bitcoin equivalents - when money is mispriced it is hard to know the value of anything and all secular bear markets are the result of a breakdown in the monetary system (greenbacks - bi-metal system - gold standard - Bretton Woods - Quasi-Free float - Crypto) - bear just don't understand how they play (sometime values decline (deflation) (1929-1932), sometimes they inflate (1966-1982) so nominal prices hold but you loose purchasing power, and sometimes you hyperinflate your values go up but you gotta find a better currency (cyrpto).
Rocky Humbert writes:
Spurious correlation. The first CFA exam was administered on June 15, 1963 to 278 men and 6 women. In 2017, the pass rate for CFA-I was 43% out of 189,000 candidates. The average starting salary for most CFA's is under $100k.
Russ Sears writes:
While I agree with much of what Rocky states, what appears to be missing from the thread is that the motive for much "rresearsh" is often CYB (cover. your. behind) Designatona helps but the real cause and effect of such proliferation is litigation and regulation.
Gordon Haave writes:
I'm a CFA and I agree with Vic and Jeff. Almost anything written by a CFA is formulaic and uninteresting.
I get an email once a week from the CFA society linking to all the things on Seeking Alpha that were written by CFA's and they are almost universally worthless.
Rocky Humbert writes:
Wait a second. The hypothesis proffered by Vic was that "ever since the CFA exams I have noticed a tendency for wall street research to deteriorate. A greshams law appears to be operating."
We are in agreement that virtually all of the research is unhelpful or rubbish. But it is incorrect to to attribute this to the CFA exam or to suggest that this is anew phenomenon. At the very least, it is due to the fact that customers of wall street firms do not pay for the "product." And the price of the product has finally converged to the value. Do you remember Henry Blodgett? Mary Meeker? That was 20 years ago. This isn't news.
Additionally, back in the early 1990's and long before the front-running scandals, David Silfen formed an internal prop group to invest based on GS analyst research. The results were abysmal and the group was disbanded.
Russ Sears writes:
While I agree with much of what Rocky states What appears to be missing from the thread is that the motive for much "rresearsh" is often CYB (cover. your. behind) Designatona help but the real cause and effect of such proliferation is litigation and regulation.
Paul Marino writes:
I agree with you Russ, but in a world where you can pay to know if Fed Powell likes his morning egg hard boiled or over easy I'm a little over easy myself. Bernanke was an oatmeal man. This is Flexionic activity written by Gov's and the Operator's will take every advantage over the common man.
Allen Gillespie writes:
In an effort to defend free thinking CFAs from the white shoe firms, I have attached and included a link to my most recent annual analysis on the Dow Jones Industrial Index built on Ben Graham's method's with an added modern twist and nod to Richard Russell in a world of QE. I have also include my white paper on Bitcoin, Banking, and Bernanke from 2013. Prior year reports available to those with a Bloomberg under DIA equity. Given that the economy now includes industrial businesses and network/software type businesses like MSFT and V I think there is a delta between book value, average ratio and earnings methods due to network value theory and excessive monetary inflation. I am calling this new valuation framework my Gold, Bitcoin, Dow Theory whereby one bitcoin plus one gold coin = one Dow share. Obviously, figuring out the key ratios is key, but in short, the theory is that gold and tangible book on the Dow will normalize and the delta goes to crytpo, so in combination they will equal the value of shares in fiat. In short, there is value but that value is dependent on the value of money, assets, earnings, and interest rates. We live in a world of fiat, hard, and crypto currencies. In short, I think QE is the same as John Law effort to demonitize gold but then cryptos broke out - you can inflate values but the market will find a way to make proper measurements. I have started making all price targets in dollars, gold and bitcoin equivalents - when money is mispriced it is hard to know the value of anything and all secular bear markets are the result of a breakdown in the monetary system (greenbacks - bi-metal system - gold standard - Bretton Woods - Quasi-Free float - Crypto) - bear just don't understand how they play (sometime values decline (deflation) (1929-1932), sometimes they inflate (1966-1982) so nominal prices hold but you loose purchasing power, and sometimes you hyperinflate your values go up but you gotta find a better currency (cyrpto).
anonymous writes:
David Simon made a related point to all this with regard to journalism. (He worked for the Baltimore Sun before writing The Wire.) As seasoned journalists who knew their beat were replaced by cheaper fresh faces who can still write words, skepticism and quality deteriorated.
Greatest Bubble Since Dotcom, from Anatoly Veltman.
How did Bitcoin jump 10X in value in the matter of just 11 months? This timeline visualizes the events in the journey to $10,000 Bitcoin. After dotcom popped, many companies lost 98% market cap - yet an operating concern remained (YHOO comes to mind). What's behind Bitcoin? I have removed 2000-3000 as an area of support following this weekend's madness. Clearly, she'll end below 1 Alas, as I always said, the hi print is likely prior to CME debut.
Andy Aiken writes:
"Clearly" and yet Anatoly claims to have no position. Evidently his net worth is tied up in airline vouchers.
anonymous writes:
Actually the "right" trade during the dotcom bubble was to be long and own low delta, far out of the money puts. The same was true during the silver bubble, the nat gas bubble and all exponential moves. What I find astounding is that some people never learn from their past mistakes. If you don't know who the sucker is at the poker table, look in the mirror…. Of more interest than calling the "top" or "bottom" in bitcoin (or anything else) for bragging rights and which are worthless, what do intelligent people expect the opening futures yield curve/implied interest rate for Bitcoin futures to look like? There is no real borrow market; so should futures be in backwardation? Or should it be upward sloping like a regular currency with a positive interest rate? My guess (based on learning from experience) is that speculative flows will swamp arbitrage flows and so it will be in backwardation so long at the market is rising strongly — and once the price has topped and it starts declining, the yield curve can/will go positive. My instinct is that the shape of the futures yield curve will provide a better clue about the status of the bear/bull debate than pulling numbers out of the air — and it's options on futures where the real fun will be had. Does anyone have a better perspective on this?
Andy Aiken writes:
Finally an interesting question on this subject. There could be some good spread trade opportunities, since I expect the term structure to move wildly in the initial stage of market development.
I expect it to be mostly in contango at first, but move to a modest backwardation that reflects an implied yield.
Bill Rafter writes:
From the cheap seats, bubbles tend to coexist with inversions (backwardation). Current uncertainty places a premium on the near month while the distant months play with the expectation of mean-reversion. Isn't that exactly what Bitcoin is all about? So you would expect Bitcoin futures to show backwardation. The only problem is that you cannot build an economically rational model for such a price structure. Thus it seems as though momentum and sentiment will rule the day. Appropriate quote from the Senator: "It is conjecture. When a researcher lacks hard evidence, conjecture is his greatest tool. Some conjecture better than others. Some conclusions are more conclusive than others."

Movies.
The inside track on Washington politics.
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Oscar-nominated movie ‘Loveless’ is a grim, pitiless gaze at present-day Russia.
Set in 2012, the mystery about a missing child depicts a family, full of promise, turning to rot.
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VW A1/A2/A3 Shift Linkage Upgrades.
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
Introduction Theory of Operation Background Race tested shift linkage What does a typical shift linkage rebuild kit include? Short throw shifter Note on 16V Relay Shafts Adjustable Short Throw Arm Weighted shift rod kit Billet Weighted Shift Rod Shift Linkage Upgrade Shift Linkage Installation Relay Shaft Bushings Extreme Duty Relay Shaft Bushings A1/A2/A3 Shift Rod Bearing A1 Relay Shaft / Lever Replacement Ball A2/A3 Relay Shaft Ball Cover Replacement Ball Studs Pricing Information Custom orders Be sure to check out the VW Vortex A2 Project Car article and VW-Vortex/web forum/military discount Frequently Asked Questions Installation Instructions Shift Linkage Tune-up Diagnosing Shift Linkage Problems Feel free to print a copy for use during installation, or add a printed copy to your order for US$1.00.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 for Priority Mail shipping.
If you have worn out relay shaft bushings, you should replace them to get the full benefit of the shortened shifter throw. Replacement bushings, machined from UHMW-PolyEthylene, that are stiffer and more durable than the soft urethane stock units (see below) are an improvement over stock. Add a pair of relay shaft bushings to your short throw arm order for US$10 additional or US$25 extra for Teflon/PTFE bushings:
1 pair UHMW Relay Shaft Bushings - US$25 + shipping.
1 pair Teflon/PTFE Relay Shaft Bushings US$40 + shipping.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 for Priority Mail shipping.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 for Priority Mail shipping.
UHMW Relay Shaft Bushings +
A2/A3-020 Relay Shaft Ball Cover (UHMW) - US$35.00 + shipping.
Teflon Relay Shaft Bushings+
A2/A3-020 Relay Shaft Ball Cover (UHMW) - US$50.00 + shipping.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 for Priority Mail shipping.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 for Priority Mail shipping.
Some VW models have a slightly different shift arm, notably the 1986.5-1988 Scirocco 16V (pictured below - A - circled in RED). And how to tell if this applies to your vehicle? Simple, pop the hood, stick your head underneath and look down behind the engine at the shift linkage and see what you have, either the angled arm or a simple straight version.
With the bent end on the shift arm, the bolt-on short throw arm will not fit directly. It is easy to adapt the bolt-on arm to fit, by grinding/cutting off one side of the lower clamp, so instead of being "U" shaped, it is now "L" shaped. If you have already ordered a kit with a normal short throw arm/clamp, you can add the modified short throw shifter clamp for an additional US$5.00 with the button below: (note that this is just the cost to modify the short throw arm in an existing, unshipped order, not the whole arm itself)
By combining the bolt on short throw arm with the ball stud mounts for the Missing LinkZ adjustable shift rods (see below), I'm now able to offer a fully adjustable short throw arm. By simply moving the ball stud from one end of the milled slot to the other, you can select any degree if shift throw reduction desired. The adjustment can be done with a pair of 13mm wrenches from the top of the engine bay.
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
Adjustable Short Throw.
Note that the adjustable short throw arm must be used with some form of ball-stud-based shift rod. It will not work with the stock A1, A2 or A3-020 shift rods. It will work with the TSR linkage or with the MissingLinkZ as pictured above. For details on pricing of the adjustable short throw arm and the other Missing LinkZ shift linkage components, consult the pricing and options section.
So, I had all new shift bushings and this way-cool short throw shift kit. Life was good, the shifting was so much better than the hit or miss (mainly miss) shifting that I had before. However, one drawback of a short throw shifter is that you are trading motion for effort. That is the shift rod is moving just as far between 1st and 2nd gear, that's how the transmission works. However, you are only moving the gear shift lever 1/2 as far as before, you don't get something for nothing. The thing you lose is force, you only have 1/2 as much leverage on the shift rod as before.
The way to make up for the lost force is to look at the physics of the situation. Force is a mass times an acceleration. Since the transmission end of the linkage probably can't be made to move any faster than it already does (the syncros need time to work) the speed and thus the acceleration of the shift rod can't really change that much. However, the mass can. The stock rod is just a length of.
5/16" dia. steel rod with some plastic ends, plenty strong but not much in the way of mass. So, I knew places that made weighted shift rods, Autotech Sport Tuning has one, a sleek, powder coated job, but they want US$50 for a hunk of steel!
So, wefound some 1.25" cold rolled steel, cut off about 1.5 lbs. length of it, milled a groove in the top, and used a hose clamp to connect it to the shift rod. Works great and the shifting feel is so much nicer. The extra weight adds a solid feel to the shift and the momentum of the steel weight pushes the transmission into gear with little effort on the shifter.
Notes: A3-020 vehicles have a weighted shift rod from that factory, so the clamp-on weight can't be used unless you install the non-weighted A2 style rod. While the weight is pictured attached to a stock shift rod, this is only to illustrates its operation. Only the weight and the clamp is supplied in the kit.
If you want to experience the joys of weighted shifting, one can be yours for US$20.00 plus US$7.00 for US shipping or US$33.00 for international shipping (weight approx. 1.5 lbs).
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
If purchased with the short throw kit, above, both can be yours for US$30.00 + US$7.00 for domestic shipping or US$33.00 for international shipping:
If you have worn out relay shaft bushings, you should replace them to get the full benefit of the shortened, weighted shifter throw. Replacement bushings, machined from UHMW-PolyEthylene, that are stiffer and more durable than the soft urethane stock units (see below) are an improvement over stock. Add a pair of relay shaft bushings to your weighted short throw arm order for US$10 additional or US$25 extra for Teflon/PTFE bushings:
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
w/ UHMW Bushings.
- US$40 + US$7.00 for US shipping.
w/ Teflon Bushings.
- US$55 + US$7.00 for US shipping.
w/ UHMW Bushings.
- US$40 + US$33.00 for International shipping.
w/ Teflon Bushings.
- US$55 + US$33.00 for International shipping.
w/ UHMW Bushings and Ball Cover.
- US$50 + US$7.00 for US shipping.
w/ Teflon/PTFE Bushings and UHMW Ball Cover.
- US$65.00 + US$7.00 for US shipping.
w/ UHMW Bushings and Ball Cover.
- US$50.00 + US$33.00 for International shipping.
w/ Teflon/PTFE Bushings and UHMW Ball Cover.
- US$65.00 + US$33.00 for International shipping.
While the above shift weight is perfectly functional, it does lack something in the way of looks :-) For folks with the TSR or MissingLinkZ shift linkage, with the all-metal rod ends, who may want to have something a bit more fitting of their linkage, Missing LinkZ has developed a billet steel weighted shift rod:
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
Billet weighted rod (bottom)
Pictured above, is the stock shift rod with a clamp-on shift weight attached. Below, is the all-in-one weighted shift rod with the rod ends installed. The weighted rod is machined from one solid piece of a special lead-bearing steel (a more dense, heavier steel alloy), the ends are tapered down to 8mm and tapped to match the thread pitch of the metric rod ends. The shift weight weighs in at 1.5 - 1.7 lbs. total.
If interested in adding a weighted shift rod to your TSR shift linkage, let us know. The rod is threaded with the same thread pitch as the TSR rod ends use, just remove the ends from your TSR or Missing LinkZ linkage, install them on the weighted rod and you are done. Priced the same as the kit version of the weighted rod, US$35.00 plus shipping ($7.00 US or US$33.00 international). For use in stand-alone applications (i. e. to replace the stock shift rod), the cost is US$50.00 plus shipping ($7.00 US or US$33.00 international).
And for A3 vehicles (or A2 vehicles w/ the A3 weighted shift rod installed), a conversion kit is available for US$20.00 which lets you convert your factory weighted shift rod to the balls stud/socket style rod ends. You'll need to cut the bent ends off the A3 weighted rod and thread about 1" of each end with an M8-1.25 thread cutting die (die available at an additional cost). Then simply thread on the jam nuts and rod ends and you have a weighted shift rod ready to install.
So what does it look like installed?
A1 Solid shift linkage w/
billet weighted rod installed.
A2/A3-020 Solid shift linkage w/
billet weighted rod installed.
E como isso funciona? All I can say is WOW!. I never realized how sloppy the stock setup was. Even with all new bushings, (which made a huge difference) is was better but still imprecise. Now, the shifter clicks in and out of gear.
We really liked the TSR shift linkage kit with the upgrades we had done to it. However, it took months and months to order with the group buy from the UK. So with some research and design work, MissingLinkZ was able to locate sources for all the components necessary to build a complete shift linkage kit. We were also able to fill in the missing parts in the original TSR linkage, including steel bushings to attach the new ball studs to the existing linkage, the short throw arm, the weighted shift rod, upgraded bushings, etc.
We call the linkage "Missing LinkZ" because we feel it incorporates all the design elements that are missing from the original VW design. Their design was probably constrained by economics and mass production issues and was adequate for the majority of vehicle owners. However after 10-20 years (or more) of use, the weaknesses of the stock linkage show through. It is sloppy, prone to wear and even if rebuilt with stock parts, rapidly returns to sloppiness. We imagine the fully-adjustable, all metal linkage was used in the engineering/design phases of the vehicle development. It was probably only in the final stages that the bean counters took over and reduced cost by replacing expensive metal parts with inexpensive molded plastic. By reversing the process, the true operation of the 020 shift linkage can truly be experienced. We doubt VW engineers were contemplating folks auto-crossing the lowly Golf when it was first designed. It was an econo-box ; a fuel efficient commuter car, not a racy sports car. However, VWs are raced and look under the hood of most race VWs and you'll not see the stock shift linkage. Metal replaces plastic, adjustable replaces fixed, secure mechanical fasteners replace friction fits, etc.
A1 Front selector rod,:
Stock above, all-metal below.
Above is an example of a stock shift linkage component and the all-metal replacement linkage. The stock linkage has plastic rod ends that are bonded to the rod, making them non-adjustable. The replacement linkage uses identical 13mm ball socket rod ends which are both spring loaded and have an additional safety clip that securely fastens the socket to the ball stud, unlike the stock plastic rod ends which only have a pressure clip on the end. Unlike the stock link, the replacement rod ends are on a fully threaded stainless steel rod and are fully adjustable for length and angle. Once set up, jam nuts keep them locked in position. Beware of some brands of adjustable linkages that OMIT the jam nut.
The adjustability is an important feature of the design. Due to variations in vehicles and transmissions, some links may need to be slightly longer or shorter than the fixed OEM links. For example I found that my '82 needed the above link lengthened about 2.5mm (2 turns out) to shift properly in 1st and 2nd gear. Now, you *could* do this adjustment by loosening the selector lever clamp on the shift rod and rotate is slightly and tighten the clamp back down. The problem is the precision needed to make this adjustment is on the order of 1° - 2° to affect a similar length change. Very hard to do this, especially laying on your back, under the car in poor light and without any way to measure the adjustment. I'd rather just get it close then fine tune it from above.
Typical A1 kit showing:
- Solid shift linkage.
- Billet weighted shift rod.
- Short throw arm.
(UHMW bushings not shown)
Typical A2/A3-020 kit showing:
- Solid shift linkage.
- Billet weighted shift rod.
- Short throw arm.
- w/ ball bushing US$110.
Pictured above are examples of the Missing LinkZ shift kit, including weighted shift rod with ball studs, replacement front and rear selector rods with 13mm socket rod ends, all fully adjustable for length, plus a bolt-on short throw shifter arm, offering 25% and 50% shift throw reductions. Contacte-nos para mais informações.
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
Shown below is a listing of all the separate shift linkage upgrade parts available. Also some typical shift linkage kit combinations are shown further down this section of the web page:
You are not limited to the kits shown above, they are just some typical combinations of the parts below. Feel free to mix-n-match any set of parts from the table below. The price of your kit can be determined simply by adding up the prices of the individual components.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 shipping.
Order for International delivery, US$33.00 shipping.
Order for US delivery, US$7.00 shipping.
Order for International delivery, US$33.00 shipping.
Ball Socket Rod Ends:
A3 Weighted Shift Rod Conversion Kit.
- adds ball stud/socket rod ends to factory shift weight.
- Can also be used on A1 or A2 non-weighted rod to convert that to rod end style.
- Can use 1 per ball stud.
For custom applications, individual links are available for US$17.50/ea. for the rear and front selector rods and US$20.00 for the forward shift rod. For example, if you already have a weighted shift rod you like, you could get just the front and rear selector rods for US$35.00 It is also possible to mix-n-match linkage parts (A1 vs. A2), for example putting an A2 transaxle into an A1 vehicle. The linkage will be a mix of A1 and A2 parts, the selector rods will be the A2-style (since they are attached to the transaxle), the shift rod and relay shaft A1-style (since they are attached to the vehicle sub-frame). For the A3 platform, you can use the rear selector rod (US$17.50) and the main shift rod (US$20.00) from the A2 kit Replacement ball studs are only needed to replace ball studs on the factory linkage, for example on the transaxle selector shaft or the relay lever. You would need to drill out the old rusted ball stud (they are pressed in) and then bolt on the replacement stud While both the clamp-on and billet shift rod weights are listed above, you would only use one or the other, not both The adjustable short throw arm MUST be used with some form of ball stud shift rod, like the TSR or Missing LinkZ linkage (however the 2-position short throw arm can be used universally) We try to have pre-built ordering buttons for the commonly ordered parts combinations. But if you don't see a bundled kit that includes the exact mix of parts you want, no problem: You can order the separate items you want and the combined order will be shipped together and any excess postage will be refunded. Or if you want to place a single order, just make a list of the parts you want, add up the prices for those parts from the table above and select one of the shipping options noted here .
Again, if you don't see a pre-packaged combination of the parts you want, use the table above to put together the exact combination and price of the parts you want then contact MissingLinkZ and we can help you work out the details. Also, if you don't want to use PayPal, again contact MissingLinkZ and we'll provide you with other ordering arrangements, or consult the custom ordering section of the main MissingLinkZ web page , which has a complete list of ordering and shipping options.
Here are some examples of various combinations possible with this shift kit:
Hint , hold your cursor over the image of the kit you are interested in, and a description of the kit components and the cost will pop up, assuming your web browser supports the image ALT text label feature.
In general, the "a" kits are the basic metal rod end shift linkage. The "b" kits add the clamp-on shift weight to the "a" kit. The "c" kits substitute the billet weighted shift rod instead of the clamp-on weight. The "d" kits add the short throw arm to the "c" kit. And finally, the "e" kits add the UHMW relay shaft bushings to the "d" kit.
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
A1a: ($50 + US shipping)
A1b: ($60 + US shipping)
A1c: ($80 + US shipping)
A1d: ($90 + US shipping)
A1e: ($100 + US shipping)
A1a: ($50 + Int'l shipping)
A1b: ($60 + Int'l shipping)
A1c: ($80 + Int'l shipping)
A1d: ($90 + Int'l shipping)
A1e: ($100 + Int'l shipping)
A2a: ($50 + US shipping)
A2b: ($60 + US shipping)
A2c: ($80 + US shipping)
A2d: ($90 + US shipping)
A2e: ($100 + US shipping)
A2a: ($50 + Int'l shipping)
A2b: ($60 + Int'l shipping)
A2c: ($80 + Int'l shipping)
A2d: ($90 + Int'l shipping)
A2e: ($100 + Int'l shipping)
A3a: ($35.00 + US shipping)
A3b: ($50 + US shipping)
A3c: ($65 + US shipping)
A3d: ($75 + US shipping)
A3e: ($85 + US shipping)
A3a: ($35.00 + Int'l shipping)
A3b: ($50 + Int'l shipping)
A3c: ($65 + Int'l shipping)
A3d: ($75 + Int'l shipping)
A3e: ($85 + Int'l shipping)
Notes: Shipping on all the above kits run US$7.00 in the US and US$33.00 to most major countries serviced by US Priority Mail service The Missing LinkZ components are all metal, aside from the pivot bushings on the relay shaft arm. All the shift rods are fully adjustable for length to allow for fine-tuning shifting performance. Billet weighted shift rod is machined out of one piece of cold rolled steel and weighs approx. 1.5 lbs. It adds mass to the shift linkage for improved operation in short throw applications. UHMW relay shaft bushings are more rigid than stock, for a more precise shift linkage operation. You can mix-n-match parts of this kit. The UHMW bushings work fine with the stock shift linkage, the short throw arm can be added, the shift weight can be clamped on. The solid shift linkage can replace the stock linkage. You are not limited to the combinations shown above, they are just examples of what can be done. Not pictured are any of the A2/3 kits(above) with the replacement UHMW relay shaft ball cover. It may be added to any of the A2/3 kits for an additional US$10.00 See this section for some other kit combinations Don't see a pre-packaged kit with the exact combination of parts you want, no problem, send us an e-mail with a list of the items you are looking for.
One of the key features of the Missing LinkZ shift linkage is that it is very flexible in the way it can be installed. When running a short throw shifter, the relay shaft end of the shift rod is moved closer to the engine block. However, in the stock configuration, the shift rod connects the back side of the selector lever on the transaxle (see lower left image). This tends to make the rod run at an angle, which in turn can make the shifting less precise and magnify any play in the linkage and end bushings. However, by simply flipping the ball stud to face towards the transaxle, instead of away from it, the shift rod is now in near perfect alignment with the relay shaft end. It not only looks better, it works better and costs nothing to do (see lower right image).
10% discount on all shift linkage/bushing orders Not a Vortex member? Same offer extended for DCI forum, ClubGTI, Edition38, Scirocco-L, VWpickups VWdiesels mailing list members: Just tell us what forum or mailing list you are on and your member name there And in the military? Same deal, enter your branch of service in the order form (below) To take advantage of this discount, just use this discount ordering form or contact us for the on-line order process If the above e-mail link doesn't work for you, send an e-mail to: Sales@MissingLinkZ and ask for the on-line order discount form. Tell us what part(s) you want, add the shipping that would have been charged for those parts and what your affiliation is and we'll do the rest. For example on the A1e shift kit, normally $100.00, with the discount, $90.00 and add the applicable postage. Note that you *must* follow one or the other discount ordering processes to qualify for the discount. You can't use any of the "Buy Now" buttons or any of the purchasing links on these web pages to qualify for the discount. If you want to change your regular order to qualify for the discount, we'll be more than happy to cancel that order so you can re-submit it via one of the above options.
One of the critical parts of the VW shift linkage system is the relay shaft. Its purpose is to convert a front-back motion of the shift rod into a side-side motion of the arm at the end of the relay shaft. There is a boxed in bracket on the end of the shift rod into which a rubber-covered lever rides. The lever is attached to the relay shaft. Essentially, the rod pushes and pulls on the lever which causes the relay shaft to rotate which causes the end of the arm to push and pull on the selector shaft on the transmission itself.
The factory setup uses a pair of soft polyurethane bushings in the relay shaft bracket to hold the relay shaft rod vertical and allow it to pivot. Over time, the polyurethane bushings break down and split allowing the relay shaft to "rack" in the bracket, losing some of the shifter input motion, which leads to missed shift, say from 1st to 2nd gear. New factory bushings will help "tighten" up the relay shaft, to some degree. However, I found when I replaced mine, while it initially felt tight (at least less sloppy than with the worn out bushings) it still racked a bit. I could place one hand on the top of the relay shaft and manipulate the selector shaft rod and feel the racking.
UHMW-PE vs. stock bushings.
Not satisfied with the "squishy" polyurethane, I wanted to find a better solution. I've had extensive experience using a material known as Ultra High Molecular Weight Poly Ethylene (UHMW-PE). It is widely used in industrial applications as a bearing and wear surface material. It is a dense plastic, self-lubricating (like Teflon/PTFE but much less expensive), is resistant to most petroleum products, and can tolerate 200°F and higher temps. In the picture above, you can see the UHMW bushings on the left and the stock bushings they replace on the right. I had to make a few design modifications for the new material.
Since the bushing material is rigid, you can't "squeeze" it into the bracket hole like the OEM polyurethane version. Instead, the bushing it turned to the exact size of the hole. A radial slit can be cut in it to allow it to be compressed a bit to fit into the hole. When the relay shaft is inserted, it'll expand and lock into place in the bracket. Alternately, to make the bushing fit tighter, you can slit the bushing radially with a fine blade saw, opposite the set screw, and then wrap the outside of the small section with electrical tape to pull the bushing ID inward. With the saw kerf removed, the ID of the bushing will shrink and the tape on the outside will increase the OD slightly. Repeat until the bushing fits snug but still allows for free relay shaft motion. A small screw serves to keep the bushing stationary in the bracket while the shaft rotates in the bushing.
We have observed minor variations in relay shaft diameters, some are 14mm, some aftermarket ones are 9/16" and they can vary between A1 and A2/A3-020 vehicles. So, I drill the center hole in the bushing to fit properly on the smallest OD shaft I've found. If it feels a bit tight on another shaft, it is a simple matter to use a file or a roll of sandpaper to slightly enlarge the bushing to fit properly. I also find that an application of a graphite or moly grease to the inside of the bushing helps both installation and initial operation.
These bushings are designed to fit A1, A2 and A3-020 vehicle applications, gas or diesel engine, 4- or 5-speed transaxles.
Order this replacement part on-line for US$15.00/pair plus shipping:
A2/A3 owners, see the A2/A3 Relay Shaft Ball Cover section for a special package.
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
For use with turbo-charged engines and/or high heat header applications (especially on the A1 chassis - note the exhaust down pipe about 2" from the relay shaft, we have an extreme duty replacement pivot bushing made of Teflon (Poly-Tetra-Fluoro-Ethylene or PTFE), which can operate to temps of -350F to +500° F. This is 250° F higher than either the stock polyurethane or UHMW replacement bushings. Bushings will be available at a price of US$30.00/pr. and since Teflon/PTFE has a lower coefficient of friction than UHMW (0.05 vs. 0.15) shifting is smoother and lighter. Teflon/PTFE also has a much more pronounced slick or greasy feel to it. The Teflon bushings may appear as below, or may be a solid, opaque white color, depending on the particular type of Teflon used to mfg. the bushings. The above properties also apply to the Teflon shift rod bearing as compared to the UHMW Shift Rod Bearing. One additional note is that the Teflon material machines a lot smoother than the UHMW material, so if visual appearance of the bushings is important to you, by all means order the Teflon parts.
Extreme Duty Teflon/PTFE bushings,
- order for US delivery.
- order for International delivery.
These bushings are designed to fit A1, A2 and A3 vehicle applications, gas or diesel engine, 4- or 5-speed (020) transaxles.
In the A1 chassis, there is one bushing that is located inside a steel bracket called the shift rod bearing. It is not designed for replacement without replacing the entire metal bracket (and that bracket is hard to find and even if found is very expensive: p/n 171.711.194G for the 5 speed linkage) at least until now! And don't make the mistake of purchasing an "orange" shift rod bearing for an A2 or A3 vehicle. It will not work in the A1 shift linkage very well as the A1 uses a.
14mm dia. shift rod and the A2/3 vehicles use a.
16mm dia. shift rod. The MissingLinkZ A1 shift rod bearing is sized to fit over the.
14mm A1 shift rod.
Note that the actual ID of the bearing is slightly larger than the nominal road dia. to allow for easy installation over the rod. The "rod" is actually made of a thin wall tubing and that can get slightly dented/bent over the years, thus the need for a slightly oversize hole. Unlike the soft polyurethane of the OEM shift rod bearing that can stretch to fit over the irregularities of the rod, the rigid plastic bearing needs to have a little bit of clearance to slide easily over the rod. We can supply a bearing with an inner diameter slightly smaller than the nominal rod dia. as a custom part. This would allow you to sand/file open the ID of the bearing to exactly fit your shift rod. Due to the nature of machining plastic, it is not possible to supply an exact diameter part. With plastic, you can take a certain size drill bit and drill a hole and you'll get a hole of a size close to that of the bit, but not exactly. And unlike metal, it is not possible to "ream" out a hole in plastic, if you try the plastic will just stretch around the reamer and not cut at all. This will happen as you use larger and larger size reamers until all of a sudden the plastic starts to cut and then you get a hole again approximately the size of the reamer but not exactly the same. Also, with the nature of the shift rod bearing in operation, it's two main motions are to allow the rod to move forward and back and to rotate. If the rod has a tiny but of side-side or up-down motion, this will not affect shifting since the mating parts of the linkage can accommodate the up-down and side-side motion as long as it is un the sub-mm range.
On the A2 and A3 chassis, there is a replacement "orange" bushing available, but it is prone to failure after a few years, probably due to its' proximity to the hot exhaust. Missing LinkZ has A2/3 sized shift rod bearings in UHMW and Teflon to replace the soft "orange" bushing.
Missing LinkZ is now offering an upgraded shift rod bearing designed to replace the worn out stock bearing while re-using your existing bracket. This results in a great cost savings over purchasing the entire bracket from the dealer and the replacement bushing is made from the same tough and slippery UHMW-PE or Teflon (PTFE) material as the relay shaft bushings for long-last and maintenance-free installation.
A: Worn shift rod bearing.
B: Bearing disassembled.
C: New shift rod bearing.
D: New bearing installed.
'80 and older) uses a totally different part. It should be possible to swap a 5-speed or newer 4-speed bracket in place of the older 4-speed bracket if you want to install the upgraded shift rod bearing on a 4-speed linkage. The older 4-speed bracket lacks this spherical housing, it seems to be more of a flat plate with a hole and a grommet surrounding the hole. The new style bracket is two pieces as shown in photo B above and has a distinct bulge that housing the spherical bearing.
For the A2 and A3 chassis, the shift rod bearing is contained inside the relay shaft tower. It is easiest to remove the tower from the vehicle and service it on the bench.
B: A2/3 Shift Rod Bearing Installed.
Note: Pictures above shown with relay shaft bushings, they are not included in the shift rod bearing kit, but it is a good time to replace those bushings as well. Also, the stock bushings are shown (the pale white relay shaft bushings and the orange shift rod bearing) to illustrate the parts that are replaced and they are also not included in the kit. Also, on the A2 and A3 shifters, there is an identical bushing at the rear of the main shift rod, under the shifter base in the vehicle, that some folks have used this same shift rod bearing to replace. We do not have any pictures or instructions for this swap, but if you want to give it a try, order two shift rod bearings and have at it. And if anyone that has done that swap, please send us a picture or write-up on how you did it. The main issue there is that the bushing is inside the box under the shifter and is hard to get to. The OEM soft bushing can be easily squeezed to fit into the opening, but this rigid plastic bushing will need to have the box opened up to insert it in place. For A2/A3 shift rod bearing orders of qty. 2 or more, a US$5.00 discount on the additional shift rod bearings of the same type is applied with the BUY NOW buttons below. See this YouTube video for some basic information on how to remove the shifter box for access to this bushing. On top of this, you'll also need to open up the shifter box to install the rigid UHMW or Teflon bushing as they can't be squeezed into the hole like the soft OEM bushing.
The only difference between the A1 and A2/A3 parts is that the A1 shift rod is a smaller diameter than the A2/A3 shift rod. As such, the hole in the middle of the bearing is sized accordingly. Pictured below are the stock A1 and A2/3 shift rod bearings (white and orange polyurethane parts, upper-center) and the replacement parts for each chassis in UHMW and Teflon/PTFE material. The Teflon/PTFE bushings are slightly larger and more spherical in shape that the UHMW bushings and so provide a slightly tighter fit inside the bracket.
Cost for the replacement shift rod bearing in UHMW is US$20.00, and in Teflon/PTFE, US$35.00, plus shipping:
A1-Teflon Shift Rod Bearing/US delivery:
A2/A3-Teflon Shift Rod Bearing/US delivery:
A1-Teflon Shift Rod Bearing/International delivery:
A2/A3-Teflon Shift Rod Bearing/International delivery:
A1-UHMW Shift Rod Bearing/US delivery:
A2/A3-UHMW Shift Rod Bearing/US delivery:
A1-UHMW Shift Rod Bearing/International delivery:
A2/A3-UHMW Shift Rod Bearing/International delivery:
Note: Shift rod bearing bracket shown for clarity only, it is not included with the kit, only the white UHMW bushing and the new fasteners are part of the kit. You re-use your existing bracket. Installation notes may be found here.
Now available is a replacement for the lever that attaches to the bottom of the relay shaft on the A1 shift linkage. Unlike the A2/3 part (below), the OEM lever has a rubber ball molded onto a steel lever that attaches to the base of the relay shaft. The rubber ball is not designed to be replaced and is subject to wear and tear being that is is located just inches from the hot exhaust.
One key feature of the lever is the precisely machined slotted hole that mates to the rectangular stud on the end of the relay shaft. If that is not a good fit (a common issue with after market replacement levers), the lever will fit loosely on the relay shaft. In that case, it will tend to work loose in use and eventually fall off. So it is critical that a good fitting lever be used. So, if you have a lever that fits well and the rubber ball falls apart, what do you do?
Simple, just cut off the old rubber ball (shown removed in far right image below) and press on a new tough replacement ball made of Delrin. The replacement ball is precision machined to exactly match the 30mm diameter of the stock ball and also to fit over the knurled end of the lever, shown in the far left image below. Note that some rare A1 vehicles have a ball of a diameter closer to 1"/25mm and also the 4-speed models likely have the smaller (
24mm) ball as well and the lever may also be shorter. The proper 5 speed lever is a shade over 3"(77.5mm) long. If this is the case on your vehicle, this part may require some modification (sanding it smaller or bending the ball cage larger) in order to fit it. And on '78 and older vehicles, there was only a simple o-ring on the end of the lever instead of the vulcanized rubber ball, so you can't use the Delrin replacement ball on that style lever. If you have a 5-speed transaxle in the vehicle and have these 4-speed linkage pieces remaining, you may want to consider swapping in the proper 5-speed relay shaft, lever and selector shaft that use the regular 30mm dia. ball. VW changed those parts between the 4-speed and 5-speed transaxles for a reason and likely you'll find improved shifting if you swap in the proper 5-speed parts. Note that the part we currently supply is designed to replace the 30mm dia. rubber ball version and if you have a relay lever with a smaller dia. ball, this part will not work without some modification.
And also note that on some vehicles, previous owners may have bent the ball cage inwards to compensate for a worn out ball. If this is the case in your vehicle, you can try and bend the sides of that cage out to fit the ball.
A1 Lever Replacement Ball.
Stock Rubber Ball Removed.
In this manner, you retain the good fit of the relay shaft lever that you currently have and simply replace the worn out rubber ball end with a tough, long lasting Delrin replacement. Order below, cost is US$15.00 plus shipping (relay lever shown below but not included):
A1/5-Speed: Relay Shaft Lever Ball w/ worldwide postage.
A : A2/A3 Relay shaft w/ worn ball.
B : Worn ball slit and removed.
C : New A2/A3 bushing pressed in place.
The A2/A3 relay shaft is a little bit different than the A1. The same relay shaft bushings work just fine on the A2/A3 shaft. The A2/A3 relay shaft also has a two part ball that has a rubber cover molded over a nylon core that in turn is pressed onto a shaft welded to the middle of the relay shaft. Over time, the rubber outer ball cover deteriorates and falls apart. As it gets smaller, there is more and more play between it and the selector lever. In the extreme, the outer coating can disappear all together leaving nearly 1/2" of free play in the main shift rod, which is almost its full range of back and forth travel, so gear shifting is nearly impossible.
The ball cover is there to simply fill the space between the Nylon core and the steel cage. As such, it's sized to fill tht space. Owing to the difficulty of performing multiple maching operations on soft plastic, there may be slight variations in the symmetry of the cover. This has no affect on operation as the cover again is only there to fill the space in the cage. The combined core+cover will find it's preferred orientation in the cage and then just stay there. The ball assembly sits still and the relay shaft pivots inside the Nylon core. There used to be a company selling a ball cover that was shaped like a cube and it would not rotate at all. We chose to make our version roughly resemble the orignal part (roughly ball shaped). But the exact shape really matters not as the outside of the ball cover simply fills the space and is not a precise mechanical interface.
NOTES: Relay shaft is not included with the ball cover kit Picture C shows a ball cover by itself to the lower left and installed, only one cover is included per kit. Actual ball cover is typically available in a gray colored UHMW instead of the white UHMW material as pictured See important fitment notes below.
One option is to purchase a new relay shaft (VW p/n: 191-711-173B) at a cost of about US$40. As of January 2002, another option is to use a UHMW polyethylene cover that can be press fit over the inner nylon core, after first removing any remnants of the original outer cover. The new cover is cylindrical for a greater wear surface and with the self-lubricating nature of the UHMW-PE material, it should last for a very long time. It is resistant to motor oil and can tolerate the same temperature range as the original polyurethane compound. The ball cover is typically available in a gray colored version made of oil-filled UHMW, but that will vary depending on material availability. The physical properties of the two materials are the same. This part is not currently available in Teflon since the nylon core is only rated to 200°F and it would not make sense to have a high temperature Teflon part on a low temperature nylon core. See the section below for a full Telon replacement ball if you need the. high temperature Teflon replacement ball.
By not replacing the existing relay shaft, the cost is less than replacing the entire unit. It can be ordered on-line below for US$15.00 plus shipping (relay shaft pictured but not included):
A2/3 Relay Shaft Ball Cover w/ worldwide postage.
The above part fits over the existing nylon core on the relay shaft, after removing any remnants of the original rubber ball cover (if present). If the nylon core is damaged or even missing, you would instead want the full A2/A3 replacement ball kit, below.
Upgrade all the relay shaft bushings, including the ball cover and the pair of bushings the shaft rotates in for US$25 (below left) or upgrade to Teflon/PTFE relay shaft bushings for US$40 (below right):
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
UHMW set - US$25.00.
Teflon set - US$40.00.
A2/A3 Relay Shaft Bushing Set.
Interestingly, this must have been a good idea, since now other vendors have offered a similar part. Only difference we see is in the price :)
If you are missing the relay shaft ball and inner core all together, a full replacement ball is also available alone and with relay shaft bushings. Also consider a full replacement ball if your nylon core is heavily worn outside or inside. Outer wear can come from running the linkage a long time after losing the rubber cover on the ball. Inner wear can be felt as a wobble or excessive play in the nylon core on the shaft that it sits on. Also, for non-standard size nylon cores (see fitment information above), the relacement ball is a good option.
In any case, the ball cover may not fit the outside of the core or the resultant assembly will still be loose on the relay shaft. The replacement ball is designed to fit over a 12mm outer diameter (OD) pivot on the relay shaft and includes a 10mm inner diamter (ID) washer to fit over the top part of the pivot pin that is peened up place to hold the replacement ball on. The replacement ball is offered in both the gray UHMW material and the higher temperature Teflon/PTFE material:
UHMW Replacement Ball: US$25.00.
Teflon Replacement Ball: US$55.00.
Order for US Delivery - US$4.00 postage.
Order for US Delivery - US$4.00 postage.
Order for International Delivery - US$13.50 postage.
Order for International Delivery - US$13.50 postage.
And we have two combination kits below with either the UHMW replacement ball and UHMW relay shaft bushings, or the new Teflon replacement ball and Teflon relay shaft bushings to rebuild your OEM relay shaft to better than new condition:
UHMW Replacement Ball +
Teflon Replacement Ball +
Here are some common (frequently asked) questions (and answers) about the shift linkage kit MissingLinkZ makes. If you have questions and they are not listed below, ask them so we can add your answers for future readers. To use, read down the list of questions, below, and click on the one you are interested in an answer for:
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
Add a UHMW Shift Rod Bearing to the above kit for US$115.00 + shipping (for new style '81+ shift rod bearing only):
For the A1 chassis, a typical all-inclusive Teflon/PTFE kit includes the basic kit components above, swapping the UHMW Relay Shaft Bushing for Teflon: - This combination costs US$115.00 + shipping:
Add a Teflon Shift Rod Bearing to the above kit for US$145.00 + shipping (for new style '81+ shift rod bearing only):
Add a UHMW Shift Rod Bearing to the above kit for US$125.00 + shipping:
For the A2 chassis, a typical all-inclusive Teflon/PTFE kit includes all the above, swapping the UHMW Relay Shaft Bushing for Teflon: - This combination costs US$125.00 + shipping:
Add a Teflon Shift Rod Bearing to the above kit for US$155.00 + shipping:
Add a UHMW Shift Rod Bearing to the above kit for US$110.00 + shipping:
For the A3-020 chassis (not for VR6/02A), a typical all-inclusive Teflon/PTFE kit includes all the above, swapping the UHMW Relay Shaft Bushing for Teflon: - This combination costs US$110.00 + shipping:
Add a Teflon Shift Rod Bearing to the above kit for US$140.00 + shipping:
There are options to all these kits, such as upgrades to adjustable short throw arms, or lower cost versions with clamp-on weight instead of the billet weight, or without the short throw arm, shift rod bearings, etc. 2. Do I have to buy the whole kit? No, this kit is designed so that any component will work by itself with the remainder of the stock or most aftermarket shift linkage parts. For example if you have the TSR solid rod end kit, pick up the relay shaft bushings, short throw arm and weighted rod, either clamp on or billet. If you have a Techtonics Tuning short throw kit, leave out the short throw arm and add whatever components you want. Your "kit" will include the parts you want, see the pricing and options table, here. So, this brings up a related question, what parts do you need? A lot depends on what you are looking for. If you want the biggest bang for the buck , replace the relay shaft bushings and on the A2/A3, the golf ball bushing. Doing these will eliminate all the play from those parts and restore everything to near factory-new feel. And, unlike the stock bushings, the UHMW (or Teflon/PTFE) bushings should remain tight for years. If you are looking to upgrade the performance of your stock linkage, then look to other parts of the Missing LinkZ package. If you want a shortened throw on the shift lever, the short throw shift arm is what you need. If you want a more solid feeling shift, the weighted shift rod is in order. If you want a fully adjustable linkage with all-metal components, then the spherical rod end Missing LinkZ linkage is what you need. Another option is to upgrade parts one step at a time, do the bushings first, then if you are happy with the results, you may find some other aspect of the shift linkage is now in need of attention. 3. Will the clamp on weight work with the stock linkage? Yes, it'll clamp right on to the stock relay rod or even to the Missing LinkZ shift rod. 4. Will the relay shaft bushings work with stock or aftermarket relay shafts? Yes, they are designed to work with the stock relay shaft or with common aftermarket shift kits. Certain kits have slightly oversize relay shaft and may require sanding or filing the hole in the bushings a bit to fit the larger shaft. 5. Will the short throw shift arm work with the A3 weighted relay rod installed on an A2? Yes it will, just slip the A3 weighted rod into the desired reduction hole on the arm and you are set, the A2 and A3 relay rods are the same length. The A3 rod is available from VW for about US$30.00, P/N: 1H0-711-183. If you would like to have an A3 weighted rod adapted to use the spherical rod ends, it is a simple matter to cut M8-1.25 threads on the end of the A3 weight rod and install a set of rod ends on it. The ball studs and socket ends to do so will cost US$15 plus postage. You cut off the bent ends of the A3 rod, then thread the ends and screw on the jam nuts and rod ends. You may need to trim a little off the threaded ends of the rod ends if the overall length comes out too long. The steel of the rod can be a little hard, so be sure and use a god quality threading die, an inexpensive carbon steel die may not "cut it" :) If you lack the tools to do this, MissingLinkZ can modify your A3 weighted rod for US$25.00 plus return postage (includes parts and labor). Contacte-nos para mais detalhes. 6. Do I need to use your short throw arm with the solid linkage kit? No, it is not necessary to use the short throw arm. It is an optional item, some people like the stock shift motion, while others prefer a shorter throw. The bolt-on arm only shortens the front-back shift lever throw (by approx. 25% or 50%) but leaves the important side-side (gate) motion the same. The linkage kit will work just fine with most aftermarket short throw kits as well, here it is shown with the Tectonics short throw arm. 7. Is there any downside to a short throw shifter? - The shortened throw does place more load on the relay shaft pivot bushings. You'll want to replace the bushings with the short throw kit if yours are worn. Depending on the degree of reduction, you may find the stock polyurethane bushings just won't hold up to the stress and will wear out and become sloppy in short order. The heavy duty replacement bushings were designed to hold up better in this application. - Any play in the shift linkage will be magnified by the degree of shift throw reduction (e. g. at 50% reduction, play is multiplied by 2X), so a nice tight shift linkage is critical for proper operation. Finally, the short throw shift arm can change the angles on the forward shift rod to some degree. While a short throw shift kit can work with the stock style linkage, using a fully adjustable linkage can allow for a better shift linkage alignment. On a related question, what are the benefits to a short throw shifter? In my A1 diesel, I find it is mainly an ergonomic benefit. I no longer have to lean up and out of the seat to shift into 3rd or 5th gears. Also, shifting is more relaxed, a short throw on the lever gives the desired effect at the transaxle. Having a tight linkage means gear selection is precise. I recall one road trip when I drove 600 miles on the Alcan Highway in one day. By the end of that day, my right arm was so tired from shifting I could hardly get it into 5th gear. If only I would have had a short throw shifter that day, life would have been so much better! The short throw shifter is designed to do just that, shorten the throw of the shift lever in the cab. The transmission linkage inside the transaxle is still doing the same thing to shift gears, so the short throw shift kit will not make your transaxle shift gears any faster than before (won't make it any slower either). You may need a little time to adjust to the shortened throw, which is why I recommend you start at a low reduction for a week or so. Trying to slam and jam the shifter (like you did with the worn out, sloppy linkage you used to run) with a nice, tight shortened throw setup can put undue wear and tear on the transaxle, you need to develop a feel for how fast to move your arm to shift gears with the new setup. 8. Why does the short throw arm only come with 2 reduction settings? We selected two reduction levels that we felt offered a significant difference over the stock setting. However, if you want to choose from a range of settings, try the new adjustable short throw arm. 9. Does the kit include *every* part of the shift linkage? No, it does not. I've chosen to include the parts of the linkage that I feel are under designed or lacking features. Parts I don't include are those that the stock VW part is fine, for example the lever on the A1 relay shaft (black rubber part). If it is worn, get a new one from VW. On the A2/A3 linkage, I now make a replacement for the ORANGE shift rod bearing on the main shift rod. If this needs replacing, an A2/A3 bushing replacement kit should cost under US$10 and includes this part. Or you can purchase the upgraded shift rod bearing for the A1/A2/A3 linkages in a choice of materials. Due to popular request, we do offer an improved replacement bushing for the A2/A3 relay shaft ball cover. Finally, this kit doesn't include any of the parts related to the shift lever itself. A common part to wear out on the A2 and A3 vehicles, especially due to the added stress applied trying to shift with a worn linkage, is the ball and socket under the shift lever itself. As it wears, the ball sinks lower in the socket until the reverse lockout no longer is functional. Here is some information on replacing this part. On the A1 vehicles, there are no re-buildable parts in the "Shift Lever Pivot Assembly", so the entire unit typically must be replaced if it is worn. 10. Do I need to re-align my shifter after installing this kit? If it was aligned properly before, it'll be aligned properly afterwards. If it was misaligned, then it will need to be aligned to work properly. If you are replacing the shift rod bearing as part of the kit installation, you will need to re-align the linkage since you have to separate the clamp from the shift rod to replace the bearing. A few tips can make the re-alignment easier. First, try to mark the position of the clamp on the shift rod, both the depth is is pushed onto the rod as well as the vertical alignment. Then you might try measuring the clearance to the reverse lockout finger under the shifter to see where it is aligned to and to familiarize yourself with what the proper alighment looks like. The alignment procedure varies with vehicle type, consult a good repair manual for the procedure: Here is a fairly good discussion of the A1 alignment procedure: mikegabriel/vw/badhabitrabbit/shifter. html In short, set the shifter base reverse lockout finger clearance to 15mm on a 5-speed and 20mm on a 4-speed. On the A2/A3 linkage, the adjustment of the shifter itself is made easier with a special tool, p/n 3285. Here is a 150 DPI scan of the tool, that if printed at the same resolution will yield a useable copy. 11. Some short throw shift kits use a shorter selector lever on the transmission, why do you use a longer arm on the relay shaft? Technically, either approach will work. But MissingLinkZ chose the longer arm for a number of reasons. - One is for ease of installation. No need to remove parts from the transmission, instead the arm extension is easily clamped to the relay shaft in place, from the top. - Also, by lengthening the relay shaft arm, you preserve the amount of shift rod motion, thus minimizing the effects of play in the linkages. On a shortened selector shaft, any play in the mechanism up to that point is magnified by the shortness of the arm. - Also, by maintaining the shift rod range of motion (and thus speed) the application of weight to the rod is more effective. The momentum of the rod motion (with weight) helps overcome the loss of leverage (due to the shorter shift lever motion) and makes shifting smooth and crisp. - Finally, the same part works just the same on A1 or A2/A3 linkages, the shortened selector lever won't work on the A1 linkage. 12. I've seen similar shift linkage kits on the market, what makes yours different? It is one of the most complete and flexible kits available. All the links are fully adjustable for length and orientation. While this may make a bit more work to install the links (setting the lengths to match the old links) it allows for fine tuning shifting operation to make up for variations in your shift linkage. There are no welded parts in the linkage, aside from the threaded stud welded into the short throw arm. By making the parts from one piece of material, possible brittleness of welded joints is avoided. All joints are purely mechanical. This eliminates most of the wear prone bushings in the system. This ensures your shifting will be just as crisp years from now as it is the day you install it. You can mix and match almost any combination of components to build a kit to suit your exact needs. basic Where possible, we also try to retain as much of the stock linkage as possible to save on manufacturing costs which is passed along to the end user. The parts are designed purely for functionality, strength and durability. You won't find any chrome plating here :-) 13. Do the two short links utilize the existing ball studs and if so, what if mine are worn or rusty? Yes, the links do utilize the existing 13mm ball studs. If the existing studs are worn out or rusted due to lack of lubrication, MissingLinkZ offers replacement studs. Installation requires removing the existing part to drill out the worn ball stud and then bolting in the replacement stud. It uses a 5/16" hole and include nut and lock washer to secure it in place of the old stud. 14. Will this kit correct an improperly adjusted shift linkage? The VW shift linkage is a complex mechanical system. The MissingLinkZ kit replaces the last links before the transaxle, but if the linkage motion is not correct coming to the end links, they can only transmit the incorrect motion. Other sources of adjustment in the linkage include the proper indexing of the shift rod on the shift rod clamp. If you disassemble this component, be sure to make an alignment mark to aide in proper reassembly. Another alignment item is the shift lever base and the floor pan of the vehicle. There are two alignment holes in the lever base that should be aligned to, ensuring that the lever throw is in line with the shift rod below. Finally, the front-back centering of the shift lever in the shift gates under the lever can be adjusted by sliding the shift rod in the clamp. There is a web page with detailed troubleshooting and alignment information: - mikegabriel/vw/badhabitrabbit/shifter. html. Customer Sam Ross wrote up these linkage alignment tips as part of his 4-sp to 5-sp conversion project. These instructions are to accompany and clarify the Bentley shop manual text and diagrams: Docs/A1basicShifterLinkageInstructions. pdf. 15. What material is the kit made of? The shift rod weights are made of short throw arms are made of mild steel, the spherical rod ends are zinc plated steel and the threaded rods are stainless steel. Relay shaft pivot bushings are made of either Ultra High Molecular Weight PolyEthylene (UHMW-PE) or Teflon/PTFE (PTFE). We paint the bare steel parts of the linkage with a hammered silver engine enamel to prevent rust. You can paint over this if you want another color or let us know if you want unpainted parts if you wanted to plate or powder coat the bare steel. 16. Do the threaded rod ends come loose? I've been running one version or another of this setup for over a year and have yet to have any rod end work loose. If the jam nuts are properly tightened against the rod ends they should not work loose. I've been running my linkage on a diesel engine vehicle (with worn out motor mounts no less - so I know vibration:) and not one problem. If you want to be extra secure, once you have the linkage adjusted to the proper length for your vehicle, you could use a thread locking compound on the jam nuts, just back them off, apply a drop of thread lock and tighten them up again. Or for the ultimate in staying power, you could try tack welding the nut and rod end to the threaded rod. The rod ends also feature a spring steel safety clip that mechanically retains the rod end on top of the ball stud. Or, if you prefer the stock linkage, you can use it along with the short throw arm, clamp on weight and improved relay shaft bearings, your choice. 17. Are there other companies that make shift linkage kits? Yes, here's some we've run across (in alphabetical order): - AutoBahn Designs (ABD Racing) - Autotech - Eurosport Accessories - Neuspeed - Techtonics Tuning - TSR Performance 18. Do you make anything for A3 and later vehicles? Some A3 vehicles use nearly the identical shift linkage as the A2 does, except for the front selector rod, which is just too short to adapt to the solid rod end style linkage. So, the Missing LinkZ kit can supply everything but that part for the A3, this is why the A3 kits are US$15.00 less than the corresponding A2 kits. We can make, by special order, an all-metal forward selector rod for the A3 vehicles using the rod ends and threaded rod. However, due to the short length, we need to weld the rod ends to together for strength as there is only a thread or so holding each one in place. As such, the rod is not adjustable in length, but you can adjust the rear selector rod if needed. The cost for this link is US$25.00, so add that cost to any A3 linkage kit to get this welded forward selector rod added, image of the custom A3c kit. If in doubt whether your A3 is a linkage or cable shifted setup, pop the hood and look. Or look at the transaxle code on the bottom of the bell housing. There you will see if you have an 020 (linkage shifted) or 02A (cable shifted, used with the VR6 engine) transaxle. For later vehicles that use a cable style shifter, Missing LinkZ doesn't have a solution for that. One good option can be found at: - Diesel Geek 19. Can I make my own shift linkage kit? Yes, that's how I made mine. After not finding all the components in any one kit, I designed and built my own. You can get the rod ends, the safety clips, the jam nuts, the threaded rod, some tools to cut and bend it, the ball studs, the washers and nuts to attach them to the stock linkage. If you have access to a metal cutting lathe and milling machine, you can machine some rod for the weights, and make some bushings to tighten up the relay shaft. If you need any of the component parts, Missing LinkZ can supply any items you can't locate on your own. 20. Does it matter what kind of oil I run in my transaxle? VW recommends a gear oil with a GL-4 rating. One that I have found is Redline manual transmission oil. I've used both MTL and MT-90. I prefer the lighter MTL for the 020 transaxle, while MT-90 is a better match for the 02A transaxle. The proper weight and grade gear oil will greatly improve shifting while moving. Running the proper gear oil allows the syncho-mesh rings to do their job better to speed up or slow down their gears to mesh properly for easier shifting. With gear oil, a bigger number (as in GL-5) is not always better, a really good GL-5 oil may be too slippery for the synchros to work properly, making shifting slower, and the extreme pressure (EP) additives in GL-5 may attack some of the bronze components in the transaxle. Some signs of incorrect gear oil include sluggish shifting when the transaxle is cold and noticeably different delays engaging various gears. For example if it takes longer to shift from 1st to 2nd gear compared to shifting from 2nd to 3rd gear, this could indicate the synchros are having trouble spinning 2nd gear up to speed. So, how much oil do you need? Ideally, you need 2 liters to refill an 020 transaxle, or four ounces over 2 quarts. I like to keep some gear oil on hand, so get 3 quarts and then you'll have some to top off the gear box if needed. On most of the early 020 transaxles (made prior to 1987) the "fill" plug is too low on the transaxle case for a proper fill level check. That is the oil will begin to drain out of the fill plug at about 1.5 liters. The plug must then be installed and the remainder of the gear oil is poured in the top of the gear box. IMPORTANT: Low gear oil levels is the #1 cause of transaxle noise and popping out of 5th gear and of 5th gear failure, so make sure the gear oil level is proper. Speaking of drain plugs, here is a handy tool to help you remove and install those pesky 17mm hex socket plugs. 21. How do I place an order? In most cases, just click on the "Buy Now" button located near the item you wish to purchase. If there is not a "Buy Now" button for the item(s) you want, just send us an e-mail and tell us what type of vehicle you have (A1, A2 or A3), and what parts you would like to order and we'll get you a price quote and list of payment options. If you are unsure what parts you need, feel free to contact us to discuss you application. The majority of the kits we've built are a custom mix of parts to work with specific applications. If you already have some components of your shift linkage upgraded, we can build you a kit around those parts. All the "Buy Now" buttons use PayPal, the ID is Sales@MissingLinkZ which will direct funds to the company's (Visual Diagnostics LLC) PayPal account. Other payment options are available, contact MissingLinkZ for details. 22. How long will it take to get my order and how will it be shipped? We try to send a confirmation e-mail for all orders we receive within 24 hours of our notification. If you don't receive a confirmation e-mail, please feel free to contact us (sales@MissingLinkZ) with your copy of your order confirmation in case we did not receive our copy, as happens from time to time. Allow 1 -2 weeks for your custom shift linkage kit to be fabricated, depending on order backlog. We hand craft each and every kit to get you the exact parts you require. While it would be great if we had a huge warehouse stocked with heaps of every single component we need, we don't. Problem is when you have a warehouse like that, you usually only can afford to stock the big sellers. So those items that are only ordered a few times a year get dropped from the product line. We would rather be able to offer those really hard to find items and we still spare parts for our original linkage kits first designed and built back in 2000-1 time frame. MissingLinkZ ships the larger kits via US Priority Mail, 2-3 day delivery time from zip code 94088 (California, USA) with delivery tracking. Smaller parts go via First Class mail (
5 days typical delivery time) unless otherwise specified. International shipments go via US Airmail or Priority Mail International with 6-10 day delivery time. For orders placed via Paypal, they will be shipped to the address specified in the Paypal transaction notice. Please be sure to DOUBLE CHECK the shipping address before placing the order. Incorrect addresses will delay the delivery of your order and any re-shipment cost will be paid by the buyer. Normally this is the Confirmed (or unconfirmed) shipping address that you select when placing the order via Paypal (which is what Paypal requires us, as a seller, to do to be covered by their Seller Protection policy). If you wish the package to be sent to a different address, you can add that address to your Paypal account or put it in the Note field in the Paypal order screen. If you send an alternate address in a separate e-mail, it may difficult to associate it with your Paypal order, especially if you use 2 or more different e-mail addresses. If possible, a delivery tracking number will be furnished. Insurance is not included, if desired, it is available at an extra cost. Expedited shipping options are also available at an additional cost (Express Mail), cost for Express Mail shipping runs US$22.00 to domestic and US$60.00 for international destinations. For uninsured shipments that are either lost or mis-delivered by the post office, replacement parts can be reordered at a discounted price (parts cost less 10%). For international shipments, the supplied tracking number may or may not be scanned along the way, so may not update on the usps tracking web site. If you desired a fully trackable international shipment, the above Expedited Shipping method is recommended, contact MissingLinkZ for details. In the event a Delivery Confirmation or other tracking number indicates that the package has been delivered, but you have not received the part, consider taking the tracking number to the post office to see if they can trace the item.
NOTE: Due to high order volume, it may take some time for production and shipments to catch up. Order backlog could be up to 6 weeks.
23. A1, A2, A3, what's that all about? These are VW Chassis Codes, this list should assist you with what vehicles are included in each production run. These shift linkage kits are designed for the A1, A2 and some of the A3 platform vehicles. 24. Are you still making and selling these shift linkage upgrade kits? Yes, we are! 25. Do you have any parts for a 4-speed to 5-speed transaxle swap? Pode apostar. There are some linkage differences between the 4-speed and 5-speed transaxles. Most of them can be handled with any of the adjustable 5-speed linkage kits. If you are unable to get the 5-speed rear selector rod to work with your 4-speed linkage, there is no problem re-using the existing 4-speed rear selector rod, especially if you plan to upgrade to a 5-speed transaxle at a later date. An additional difference is the length of the selector lever in the two setups. In order to get increased side-side throw for the wider 5-speed shift pattern, the selector lever in a 5-speed linkage is approx. 2" longer than that of the 4-speed shift linkage. You can grab the longer lever from the 5-speed donor vehicle or a bolt-on extension is available from Missing LinkZ, the extends the length of the 4-sp. (
4" / 100mm) selector lever approx. 2" / 50mm to match the longer (
6" / 150mm) 5sp part. See the pricing section for ordering information (A1 Selector Lever Extension). This extension will allow the 4sp lever to "reach" the wider R, 1-2, 3-4, 5 gear shift range on the 5sp transaxle. However, the 4sp. selector lever is set up for a.
24mm dia. ball and shorter lever on the relay shaft as compared to the.
30mm dia. ball and longer relay lever on the 5sp. linkage. Therefore, most folks recommend getting the 5-speed gear shift assembly and the long shift rod connected to it from the donor vehicle, although we've have heard of folks being able to re-use the 4-speed shifter, although you might want to get a 5-speed shifter knob available from a variety of sources. Likewise, if you plan to upgrade to a UHMW or Teflon shift rod bearing, you'll need the shift rod bearing bracket from the 5-speed vehicle as it can be repaired unlike the 4-speed bracket. Also, the relay lever (part with the black rubber ball on the end, is longer on the 5-speed linkage. You can get one of those from a junkyard or in a generic shifter rebuild kit. You'll also need the driver's side transaxle mount for the 5-speed donor as that part is different than the 4-speed mount. And the shift lever alignment dimension in the 5-speed shifter. 26. I'm swapping a transaxle from a different chassis into my vehicle, which type of linkage kit do I use? Well, to answer that question, you'll need to understand a few fundamentals and then decide for yourself. So assuming you are swapping a linkage-shifted (020) transaxle from and A1/A2/A3 vehicle into a different A1/A2/A3 vehicle, realize that any 020 transaxle will work with any type of shift linkage. And there are parts of the linkage that attach to the chassis (like the shifter and the shift rod bearing and relay shaft brackets) and there are parts of the linkage that attach to the transaxle (like the relay lever and selector levers). So, you'll need to use all of one type of linkage setup or the other, that is make the new transaxle brackets match the transaxle that you are removing. Or you need to match the chassis brackets on your recipient vehicle to the donor vehicle. Unless you plan on making significant modifications to adapt the different chassis brackets (especially in going from an A2/A3 into an A1), the easiest route would be to move all the A1 transaxle brackets to the A2/A3 transaxle. Then you would use any of the A1 shift linkage parts if you want to upgrade. Here is some 020 transaxle information showing the selector lever and relay lever bracket mounting bolt hole. 27. Does Missing LinkZ offer a heim joint version of the adjustable shift linkage? Sure, we have two options that have been available for special order since 2006, click here for a photo of a heim joint Missing LinkZ shift linkage. Retrofitting the stock linkage to heim joints is more involved than just installing the ball stud rod ends that are used in our adjustable linkage kits. Since the metal rod ends used in our regular linkage kits are designed to fit over the OEM ball studs, there are no modifications to the stock shift linkage to install the Missing LinkZ adjustable linkage. But for the heim joints, you must remove various parts of the factory linkage and grind/drill out the 4 factory ball studs (they are pressed and welded in place) in order to install the bolts required for the heim joint rod ends. Missing LinkZ offers two options for customers wishing to use a heim joint style shift linkage: 1: For heim joints to replace the ball stud rod ends we can supply a DIY kit that you can use to retrofit an existing shift linkage kits. That kit costs US$20.00 per shift linkage rod, so for a full set of 3 shift linkage rods, the cost would be US$60.00. Note that the heim joint rod ends are a little longer than the ball stud rod ends so you might need to trim one or more of the existing threaded shift rods (or billet weight) in order to match the new shift rod length to the factory lengths. Also, for the A2 linkage kits, the short forward selector rod will require a match male-female pair of heim joints due to the shorter length, so be sure to let us know if the retrofit kit is for an A2 linkage. 2: A second option is that you can request heim joints and installation hardware to swap out the ball stud rod ends on a new linkage kit. Cost for this option is US$15.00/shift linkage rod or US$45.00 in addition to a full 3-rod linkage kit. Contact Missing LinkZ for information on the heim joint retrofit kits. Since we have so many options and kits and don't wish to further confuse the customers with more choices, we have chosen to offer the heim joint kits as custom orders, those may be placed as noted here. [Return to the top of this page] [Return to the main VW page.. ]